Executive Summary
Rising tensions across multiple regions are being shaped by parallel military movements and diplomatic signaling. Iran is pressing to elevate nuclear negotiations to the level of national security guarantees while reaffirming its ballistic missile posture and conducting a missile test, as the United States adjusts its air posture around the Middle East through fighter rotations, tanker movements, and sustained but slowing air defense transfers. In East Asia, China has resumed large-scale air and naval exercises around Taiwan focused on SEAD, undersea warfare, and electronic warfare, prompting Taipei to expand its own drills and raise alert levels. At the same time, global defense activity reflects continued militarization and alliance-building, from new aircraft deployments and arms transfers in Europe and Asia to intensified logistics flows linked to high-level political visits in the South Caucasus.
This daily brief examines heightened military posturing and strategic deployments amid ongoing diplomatic engagement, as major powers balance deterrence, signaling, and negotiation. It assesses force movements, operational readiness, and alliance dynamics alongside parallel diplomatic tracks, highlighting indicators that shape escalation risk and crisis management across multiple theaters. The brief is designed to support timely situational awareness by contextualizing tactical developments within broader geopolitical and security trends.
U.S. POSSIBLE ATTACK ON IRAN - MIDDLE EAST DEPLOYMENT
Six U.S. Air Force F-35A fighter jets have departed the United States for deployment to RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom. Another six F-35As that were previously deployed to the Azores and then to Spain remain in Spain.
Three U.S. Air Force tanker aircraft have been repositioned from bases in Spain and the United States back to the Middle East. These tankers are assessed to support the return of 12 F-15E fighter jets currently based at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan to the United States. It is further assessed that the F-15Es will be replaced by the F-35s currently in Spain and those redeploying to the United Kingdom, which are expected to move onward to Jordan.
Cargo flights transporting air defense systems and related equipment to bases in the Middle East are continuing, although the overall frequency of flights has decreased. Since January, the recorded air defense and equipment transfer flights are as follows:
• Muwaffaq Salti Air Base: 75
• Al Udeid Air Base: 13
• Prince Sultan Air Base: 15
• Diego Garcia NSF: 9
• Ali Al Salem Air Base: 7
• Isa Air Base: 3
Over the weekend, there was a high volume of cargo aircraft activity to and from Armenia and Azerbaijan. These flights were reported to be linked to the visit of the U.S. Vice President to Armenia and Azerbaijan.
GLOBAL SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has put forward new demands regarding the format and substance of the ongoing nuclear talks. Tehran stated that the negotiations should be elevated beyond purely technical issues to include “national security guarantees.” Iran’s Ministry of Defense, meanwhile, reaffirmed that the ballistic missile program will continue and declared that there would be no concessions on the country’s “regional deterrence capacity.”
On 9 February, Iran issued a NOTAM covering an area stretching from the south of Tehran to central parts of the country, citing a ballistic missile test.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has resumed large-scale air and naval exercises around Taiwan. The drills include an integrated sequence focused on suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD), submarine detection, and electronic warfare systems.
In response to China’s military activities, Taiwan’s armed forces issued counter-maneuver directives. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense announced an expansion of domestic exercises and raised alert levels for F-16V fighter aircraft and indigenous anti-submarine warfare systems.
Somalia and Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of understanding on military cooperation on the sidelines of the World Defense Show in Riyadh, formalizing expanded defense ties as Mogadishu confronts rising regional pressure linked to Somaliland.
The Indian Coast Guard detained three U.S. sanctioned oil tankers transporting Iranian crude as part of an operation aimed at disrupting a large-scale oil smuggling network.
GLOBAL DEFENSE DEVELOPMENTS
Leonardo announced a Letter of Intent with Indonesia’s Ministry of Defence and PT ESystem Solutions concerning the potential supply and support of M-346F Block 20 advanced training and light combat aircraft for the Indonesian Air Force.
Japan deployed its first U.S.-made F-35B Lightning II short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) fighter jets into operational service.
Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation delivered a new batch of upgraded Su-57 fighters to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
U.S. Naval Forces Central Command and 5th Fleet reported that Navy sailors aboard USS Santa Barbara (LCS 32) took part last week in a live-fire maritime gunnery exercise in the Arabian Gulf, with close air support provided by U.S. Air Force A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft
Armenia’s Ministry of Defense publicly displayed newly acquired weapons procured under contracts with India’s defense industry, unveiling air defense systems, rocket artillery, tube artillery, and unmanned platforms during an official demonstration in Armenia.
German Air Force takes delivery of 52nd A400M military transport aircraft.
France is preparing to transfer Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine and has signed a Letter of Intent on joint weapons production, with discussions also covering accelerated aircraft delivery and the provision of large quantities of AASM Hammer precision-guided bombs to the Ukrainian armed forces.
The German arms procurement agency has contracted Diehl Defence to procure the IRIS-T family of guided missiles for the German Armed Forces.
The U.S. Army is collecting penalties from Northrop Grumman and Global Military Products over late shipments of artillery ammunition intended for Ukraine.
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