Global Security and Defense Developments - 13 February 2026

This daily brief examines heightened military posturing and strategic deployments amid ongoing diplomatic engagement, as major powers balance deterrence, signaling, and negotiation. It assesses force movements, operational readiness, and alliance dynamics alongside parallel diplomatic tracks, highlighting indicators that shape escalation risk and crisis management across multiple theaters. The brief is designed to support timely situational awareness by contextualizing tactical developments within broader geopolitical and security trends.

U.S. POSSIBLE ATTACK ON IRAN - MIDDLE EAST DEPLOYMENT

• The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) is expected to redeploy from the Caribbean to the Middle East, with its carrier strike group set to join the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) strike group in the Persian Gulf. The move would significantly expand U.S. naval presence in the region as part of a renewed pressure campaign against Iran.

• Cargo flights transporting air defense systems and related equipment to bases in the Middle East are continuing, although the overall frequency of flights has decreased. Since January, the recorded air defense and equipment transfer flights are as follows:

  • Muwaffaq Salti Air Base: 87

  • Ali Al Salem Air Base: 15

  • Al Udeid Air Base: 13

  • Prince Sultan Air Base: 19

  • Isa Air Base: 3

  • Diego Garcia NSF: 10

• Two U.S. Navy EA-18G electronic warfare aircraft based at Morón Air Base in Spain conducted flights to Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, supported by one KC-46A tanker aircraft.

• Six F-35A fighter jets currently stationed at Morón Air Base are also expected to deploy to Jordan over the weekend. Their Middle East deployment had previously been suspended due to ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and the United States and a tanker aircraft incident that led to the temporary closure of Morón’s runway.

GLOBAL SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS

• Iran–US nuclear talks conducted through Oman have reached a critical stage due to the Trump administration’s hardline approach and Israel’s rigid demands; negotiations have not yet resulted in a comprehensive agreement, keeping both diplomatic and military options on the table.

• Plans for U.S.-led peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia remain on the agenda, but no concrete progress toward an agreement has been achieved so far; discussions continue over potential venues such as Abu Dhabi or alternative locations.

• China’s continued military presence and renewed exercises around Taiwan are sustaining elevated regional tensions; Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense stated that defense readiness is being further strengthened.

• The 62nd Munich Security Conference, which has begun in Munich, is addressing issues such as the transformation of the global order, tensions in the Middle East, NATO–Russia relations, the Russia–Ukraine war, and regional security threats at the highest level. The main agenda focuses on international security architecture, great-power competition, nuclear risks, and the regional role of actors such as Turkey.

GLOBAL DEFENSE DEVELOPMENTS

• Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Truxtun collided with the support ship USNS Supply while the two were conducting an at-sea replenishment.

• Algeria has positioned a Chinese-made CHL-906 electronic warfare system about 6 km from the Moroccan border, though no official confirmation or verified imagery has emerged.

• India’s Defence Acquisition Council has approved the next step toward a potential 114-aircraft Rafale fighter purchase under its MRFA program, a deal valued at roughly $40 billion.

• India’s Defence Acquisition Council approved a budget request for the procurement of six additional P-8I maritime patrol aircraft. The total value of the sale, which was authorized by the U.S. Department of State in 2021, is expected to reach up to USD 2.42 billion.

• United Kingdom announced a new £500 million Ukraine assistance package including 1,000 Martlet Lightweight Multirole Missiles, £150 million for NATO’s PURL mechanism, 1,200 additional air defence missiles, and 200,000 artillery rounds.

• The U.S. Department of War has awarded BAE Systems a contract with a ceiling of $145 million for the development, manufacturing, and delivery of Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems weapon systems.

• The Japanese government officially turned over five coastal radar systems to the Philippines as part of efforts to bolster Manila’s maritime domain awareness amid China’s continuing aggressive actions in the region.

• Indonesia is moving forward with plans to acquire the former Italian Navy aircraft carrier Giuseppe Garibaldi (C 551). While a formal contract has not yet been confirmed, Indonesian Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Muhammad Ali stated that the vessel is expected to arrive ahead of the Indonesian National Armed Forces’ 81st anniversary on October 5.

• Estonia announced to introduce medium range air defence system in 2026 amid expanded military investment plans.

• German naval shipbuilder TKMS and Magellan Aerospace Corporation have signed a Teaming Agreement to strengthen industrial cooperation in support of Canada’s future submarine capabilities, with a focus on heavyweight torpedo production and in-service support for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project.

• Rheinmetall has secured an initial order worth around €200 million from the NATO Support and Procurement Agency under a 2025 framework agreement for 120mm tank ammunition, marking a significant contract in scope and value.

• The U.S. Air Force has launched a new contracting action linked to continued production and sustainment of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a heavyweight precision-guided weapon designed to destroy hardened and deeply buried targets.

• France will provide an additional loan of approximately €260 million for the purchase of French AASM Hammer aerial bombs for Ukraine