Executive Assessment
Insurgent activity remains active across the Sahel, with JNIM sustaining attacks in Mali and Burkina Faso, while Niger reports continued counterterrorism operations. Somalia maintains operational pressure on Al-Shabaab through coordinated raids.
In the DRC, the killing of an AFC/M23 spokesperson has triggered renewed clashes and FARDC offensives, increasing escalation risks. In Nigeria, renewed genocide allegations in a US report may heighten diplomatic pressure despite official denials.
MALI
• JNIM claimed that it targeted an army vehicle with an IED in Aourou, Kayes region, Mali, stating that the attack was carried out by its militants.
NIGER
• The Nigerien Army announced that, across Niger, military operations conducted between 16–22 February 2026 resulted in 17 terrorists being neutralized and 33 others arrested.
BURKINA FASO
• JNIM claimed that it carried out an attack on a military position in Mantou, Burkina Faso, killing one soldier, destroying two military vehicles, and seizing one military vehicle along with rifles and ammunition.
• JNIM claimed that it attacked a military post on the outskirts of Kantchari, Burkina Faso, killing nine soldiers and seizing rifles and ammunition.
SOMALIA
• The Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency announced that, in coordination with international partners, at least 23 Al-Shabaab militants were killed in four separate operations conducted in the Middle Shabelle and Hiiraan regions of Somalia.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
• Fighting in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which had decreased in intensity but not ceased, resumed following the killing of AFC/M23 military spokesperson Willy Ngoma in a FARDC drone strike on 24 February.
• Following the incident, the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC), supported by local Wazalendo militias, launched a large-scale military offensive against AFC/M23 positions in Masisi and Walikale, employing drones and heavy artillery.
• In Masisi, government forces and allied militias conducted coordinated operations and captured several strategic areas, while AFC/M23 launched counterattacks.
• In Walikale, AFC/M23 attacks were repelled by government forces, resulting in a fragile calm on the ground; however, reports indicate that the rebels are reinforcing the area with additional military deployments.
• AFC/M23 leadership accused the Kinshasa government of deliberately violating the ceasefire, opting for a military solution over diplomacy, and criticized the international community for remaining silent regarding FARDC operations.
NIGERIA
• A US Congressional report reiterated allegations of genocide against Christians in Nigeria, describing the country as “the deadliest place in the world to be a Christian” and calling for comprehensive sanctions against individuals and entities perceived as responsible for or contributing to terrorist activities.
• The Government of Nigeria stated that it does not maintain any official policy permitting religious violence or targeted attacks against any religious group within the country.
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