Africa Conflict-Diplomacy Daily Brief - 2 March, 2026

Executive Assessment

Security dynamics across West and Central Africa remain volatile, marked by sustained insurgent activity and multi-front counter-operations. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, AFC/M23 has maintained offensive momentum in Walikale and Masisi despite drone losses, while FARDC—backed by Wazalendo and Burundian forces—has regained limited ground in South Kivu, indicating a fluid but unresolved battlespace.

In the Sahel, JNIM continues high-impact attacks in Burkina Faso, signaling persistent operational capacity against security forces. In Nigeria, ISWAP retains the ability to mount coordinated assaults on military positions, though recent army responses suggest improved defensive resilience. Niger’s arrests following MPLJ attacks reflect ongoing internal security pressures but localized containment efforts.

In Somalia, intensified joint operations with international partners, including the launch of Operation Rolling Thunder, indicate sustained counter-Al-Shabaab momentum, targeting both leadership and rank-and-file elements. Overall, the regional environment reflects continued insurgent adaptability countered by increasingly coordinated state and allied military responses.

NIGERIA

• Armed bandits carried out an attack on the communities of Tashan Maje, Saduro, and Runtuwa under Malale administration in Borgu Local Government Area of Niger State, Nigeria, killing 15 civilians.

• The Nigerian Army announced that it repelled coordinated ISWAP attacks on Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) in Mayanti, Gajigana, and Gajiram in Nigeria, neutralized numerous ISWAP militants, and seized ammunition, including an unmanned aerial vehicle.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

• Clashes continued for a third consecutive day in Walikale, Democratic Republic of the Congo, between AFC/M23 and FARDC elements supported by Wazalendo.

• The Congolese Army announced that it shot down four AFC/M23 kamikaze unmanned aerial vehicles at Bangoka Airport in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on 1 March 2026 before they reached their targets.

• AFC/M23 reportedly captured several villages in Walikale and Masisi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, following intense clashes with FARDC and Wazalendo.

• The Congolese Army, with the support of Wazalendo and the Burundian Army, reportedly recaptured more than five villages in the Fizi and Mwenga areas of South Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, following operations against the Twirweneho militia allied with AFC/M23.

BURKINA FASO

• JNIM claimed that 30 soldiers were killed in an attack on troops on the outskirts of Titao in Loroum Province, Burkina Faso, and that a bulldozer, military vehicles, and motorcycles were destroyed, while rifles, motorcycles, and ammunition were seized.

• JNIM claimed that one soldier was killed and rifles and ammunition were seized in two separate attacks in Fada N’Gourma, Burkina Faso.

NIGER

• The Nigerien Army announced that, following MPLJ attacks on 10 and 27 February in Niger, it arrested four individuals, including two foreign nationals, and seized a vehicle and ammunition during subsequent operations.

SOMALIA

• The Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency announced that, in cooperation with international partners, a senior Al-Shabaab leader was killed in the Hantiwadaag area of Awdheegle district in the Lower Shabelle region, Somalia.

• The Somali National Army announced the launch of a new military campaign named “Operation Rolling Thunder” in the Lower Shabelle region, Somalia, with the support of Ugandan forces under AUSSOM and international partners.

• The Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency announced that, in cooperation with international partners, 40 Al-Shabaab militants were killed in two operations in the Hiiraan and Lower Shabelle regions, Somalia.

• The Somali National Army and AUSSOM forces reportedly entered the settlement of Mubaarak near Awdheegle, Somalia.