Executive Assessment
In Nigeria, the rise in ISWAP drone operations and direct assaults on military positions highlights an escalation in asymmetric tactics, prompting Abuja to explore foreign defense partnerships to address technological and operational gaps. The engagement with an Israeli security firm reflects a growing emphasis on counter-UAS capabilities and integrated security modernization.
In Somalia, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is pursuing a dual-track strategy that combines political consultation and amnesty outreach with continued counterterrorism pressure, supported by U.S. AFRICOM airstrikes against Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia. This approach underscores efforts to consolidate internal political consensus while sustaining military operations against insurgent groups.
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Angola-brokered ceasefire has formally entered into force, yet ongoing clashes and the absence of a verification mechanism indicate a fragile and uncertain implementation phase. Meanwhile, tensions between Somaliland and Türkiye over statements regarding territorial integrity and recognition dynamics reflect continued diplomatic sensitivities in the Horn of Africa.
NIGERIA
• Israeli defense firm Reguard Security has initiated talks with Nigerian security agencies in Abuja following an increase in ISWAP drone attacks along the country’s northern borders. The Tel Aviv–based company, led by former Israeli Special Forces member Avraham Ohayon, offers solutions in drone detection and neutralization, as well as cybersecurity, military training, and risk management.
• ISWAP claimed responsibility for an attack on a military camp in Kauwa, Borno State, stating that four soldiers were killed and several others wounded during a 30-minute clash. The group reported destroying 11 vehicles, including armored units, and seizing one vehicle along with weapons and ammunition.
SOMALIA
• Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud hosted a consultative meeting ahead of the National Consultation Conference with opposition leaders, federal state leaders, and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre. Discussions focused on the electoral process, drought response, and the fight against Al-Shabaab.
• President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud offered amnesty to young Al-Shabaab fighters ahead of the holy month of Ramadan, urging them to lay down their arms. He stated that many of the youths had been misled by the group.
• AFRICOM announced that on February 14–15, 2026, it conducted airstrikes targeting Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia in the vicinity of Kismayo, the Golis Mountains, and Shabeellaha Dhexe.
• The Somaliland government condemned statements by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who said that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland would not contribute positively to regional stability and reiterated the need to respect Somalia’s territorial integrity. Somaliland described the remarks as “an unacceptable interference” and warned that they could damage relations with regional partners.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
• Türkiye’s Ambassador to Kinshasa, Murat Ülkü, met with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Guy Kabombo Muadiambita, reaffirming Türkiye’s support for the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s pursuit of lasting peace.
• The ceasefire proposed by Angola and accepted by the Democratic Republic of the Congo has entered into force. However, clashes reportedly continue on the ground, and no ceasefire verification mechanism has yet been established.
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