AFRICA BULLETIN — ISSUE 04

Executive Summary

Africa’s security landscape continued to deteriorate as conflicts expanded and external involvement deepened across Sudan, the Sahel, and the Great Lakes. Sudan’s war opened a new front in Blue Nile while humanitarian conditions worsened in Kordofan and Darfur, with foreign support networks sustaining both sides. In the Sahel, competition between JNIM and ISSP intensified, while Niger’s military ties with Russia deepened following the suppression of the August mutiny. AFC/M23 continued expanding its military and administrative control in eastern DRC, while renewed insecurity in Mozambique, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Somalia highlighted the growing complexity of Africa’s security environment. Diplomatic efforts remained active but fragile. Libya took tentative steps toward elections and military reunification, while South Sudan moved to remove constitutional obstacles ahead of its December elections. Tensions between Morocco, Algeria, and Spain continued following the Ceuta migrant crisis. At the continental level, the UN’s “Correct the Map” resolution and Somalia’s ratification of the AfCFTA reflected efforts to strengthen Africa’s international representation and economic integration. Energy and mining developments reinforced a broader trend toward greater state control over strategic resources and efforts to move up the value chain. Libya increased oil production despite persistent electricity and fuel shortages, while Nigeria continued to face a gap between domestic refining capacity and demand. The Strait of Hormuz crisis added $21.9 billion to the energy import bills of 32 African countries, widening the divide between energy importers and exporters. In mining, the DRC moved to strengthen state control over geological data and copper-cobalt exports, while Guinea and Nigeria pursued domestic processing and industrial integration. With copper prices potentially reaching $15,000 per tonne in early 2027, competition over Africa’s critical minerals is likely to intensify alongside efforts by China, the United States, and other external actors to secure supply chains.