The Struggle for Access in the Arctic: New Moves by China, Russia and NATO

Executive Summary

The Arctic is becoming a more contested strategic space as security, energy, transportation, infrastructure, and resource competition increasingly converge. Russia is expanding the role of the Northern Sea Route in energy exports and commercial shipping, while China is strengthening its position through trade, research activity, and energy cooperation. NATO members are responding with greater investment in surveillance, satellite communications, icebreaker capacity, rapid force deployment, and critical infrastructure protection. At the same time, Greenland, continental shelf disputes, and the EU’s evolving Arctic policy are adding new political and legal dimensions to regional competition. The central struggle is increasingly focused on who can maintain reliable access, secure infrastructure, and sustainable economic routes across the Arctic. If current trends continue, the region will become a key arena where military deterrence, commercial interests, and resource security shape the emerging balance of power.