The New Security Equation in the Arctic and the Baltic

Executive Summary

The Arctic and Baltic-Northern European security areas are becoming part of the same strategic system as trade, energy, air defence, and critical infrastructure increasingly converge. Russia and China are turning the Northern Sea Route into a regular commercial and energy corridor, while Western sanctions are pushing Moscow towards domestic ice-class vessels and Chinese industrial support. Canada and NATO members are expanding surveillance, joint operations, and air defence across the northern flank. Repeated drone incursions over the Baltic states and Romania have exposed gaps in low-altitude detection and increased the risk of escalation when their origin and intent remain unclear. Meanwhile, Greenland’s regulatory decisions, Europe’s dependence on critical minerals, northern Norway’s electricity constraints, and disputes over shadow fleet enforcement are adding new political, economic, and legal pressures. The emerging balance will depend on who can maintain secure routes, resilient infrastructure, affordable defence, and credible regional partnerships.