The Effects of the Iran Crisis on Africa’s Food Security and Macroeconomic Stability

Executive Summary

The Iran crisis is creating a multilayered shock for Africa that goes far beyond higher oil prices. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are increasing shipping, fertilizer, and food costs at the same time, making the crisis both a humanitarian and macroeconomic threat for import-dependent African economies. The report argues that Africa is being hit through three main channels: higher transport and insurance costs that raise final food prices, fertilizer disruptions that threaten future agricultural output, and broader inflationary pressure that weakens currencies, strains current accounts, and increases fiscal pressure on governments. These effects are especially severe because many vulnerable households already spend a large share of their income on food. In short, the Iran crisis is not just an external energy shock for Africa; it is a crisis multiplier that threatens food security, agricultural resilience, and macroeconomic stability at the same time.