The Balance of Interests Behind the Conflict in Tigray

Executive Summary

This text analyzes the recent Shererina clashes in Tigray not merely as a border or identity dispute, but as a structural crisis driven by domestic political legitimacy, economic interests, and regional rivalries. According to the text, both the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF benefit politically from the continuation of the conflict, as it strengthens their respective positions. The analysis particularly emphasizes the role of land revenues, sesame trade, and gold smuggling in western Tigray as material factors that intensify the conflict. It also argues that the Debretsion–Getachew split within the TPLF has made the organization increasingly dependent on a narrative of external enemies. The text further claims that regional actors such as Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt are also involved in the equation through different strategic calculations. In conclusion, the Shererina clashes are presented not as an isolated border incident, but as the latest episode in a recurring conflict cycle sustained by the delayed referendum, incomplete disarmament, and the unresolved return of displaced populations.