The African Continent - 27 February 2026

This daily brief examines heightened military posturing and strategic deployments amid ongoing diplomatic engagement, as major powers balance deterrence, signaling, and negotiation. It assesses force movements, operational readiness, and alliance dynamics alongside parallel diplomatic tracks, highlighting indicators that shape escalation risk and crisis management across multiple theaters. The brief is designed to support timely situational awareness by contextualizing tactical developments within broader geopolitical and security trends.

LIBYA

• In Libya, despite 44 applications submitted for the 22-block licensing round launched last year, only five blocks were awarded in February 2026. The winners included Chevron, Eni, QatarEnergy, Repsol, and TPAO. The limited interest is seen as complicating the country’s goal of increasing production to 2 million barrels per day by 2030.

• The Libya Businessmen Council signed a cooperation agreement with the General Authority for Exhibitions and Conferences to organize joint trade fairs and economic forums. An additional memorandum was reached with the Libya–Egypt Business Council to organize the Egypt Industrial Exhibition at the Tripoli International Fairgrounds.

• The Tripoli Chamber of Commerce called for the withdrawal of newly imposed import taxes by the Central Bank, stating that the measures have caused price increases and depreciation of the dinar. The Chamber issued a five-point reform demand and warned of peaceful protests and sit-ins if the decision is not reversed.

• The National Development Agency announced the completion of a new administrative building at Sirte Gulf International Airport, describing it as the largest airport administrative facility in Libya. The project, under Libya Vision 2030, aims to position Sirte as a strategic air hub and enhance operational capacity.

NIGERIA

• UK PACT–Nigeria team leader Tinyan Ogiehor stated that solar and battery systems are being deployed to provide 24-hour electricity to healthcare facilities, with approximately $4.6 million in co-financing secured from seven states. Following deregulation, petroleum product prices increased from $0.30 to $0.90 per liter, accelerating demand for alternative energy solutions.

• The Federal Government announced efforts to strengthen policy and regulatory frameworks in the mining sector to attract foreign investment and enhance global competitiveness, emphasizing improved governance and transparent data structures to support financing access and investor confidence.

• The Rural Electrification Agency signed an agreement with ECOWAS under ROGEAP to install solar energy systems in 15 health and education institutions, supported by a $700,000 grant. Niger State will provide additional co-financing.

• The Nigerian government confirmed that the approximately $25 billion Nigeria–Morocco gas pipeline project is progressing on schedule. The 6,860 km pipeline, with annual capacity of 30 billion cubic meters, will pass through more than 12 countries and aims to enable exports to Europe while enhancing regional energy integration.

• TGS, in cooperation with NUPRC, launched the Laide multi-client 3D seismic survey covering 11,700 km² in the eastern Niger Delta. The study aims to improve imaging of complex geological structures in deepwater fields and reduce exploration risk.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO 

• The DRC and the United States are strengthening strategic cooperation in copper mining to diversify supply chains in response to China’s 65% share of global refining capacity. The DRC aims to increase its global copper production share from 8.5% to 12–15%, aligning with rising demand driven by renewable energy and electric vehicles.

• The DRC approved a $1.2 billion health agreement covering 2026–2031, combining $900 million in U.S. support with $300 million in domestic contributions. The package focuses on HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and maternal and child health.

ZIMBABWE

• Valterra Platinum announced it is owed $100 million by the government due to the rule requiring 30% of export revenues to be converted into local currency. The company produced 219,700 ounces of PGM at the Unki mine in 2025 and reported annual profit rising to R16.7 billion.

• Zimbabwe’s lithium concentrate exports increased by 30% in the first half of 2025 to 586,197 tons. A ban on raw lithium exports will take effect in January 2027. Chinese investors have reportedly invested approximately $900 million in processing facilities, while the electricity deficit continues to exceed 1,000 MW.

• Sichuan Yahua has begun construction of a lithium sulfate plant in Zimbabwe to enable in-country ore processing and supply higher value-added products to China’s battery supply chain, aligning with Beijing’s critical minerals supply security strategy.

MOZAMBIQUE

• A workshop held in Maputo on 9–10 December addressed energy transition and methane management, calling for strengthened policy and regulatory frameworks to detect and reduce methane emissions in the oil and gas sector. Research by ACEP covering Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Mozambique, and Senegal highlighted knowledge and strategic gaps in methane mitigation.

• Altona Rare Earths secured a $1.875 million grant from the U.S. Trade and Development Agency for the Monte Muambe rare earth project to fund pre-feasibility metallurgy and risk reduction studies. The company stated the partnership aligns with U.S. critical minerals strategy and aims to attract North American investors.

• TotalEnergies EP Mozambique Area 1 announced a tender for the supply of personal protective equipment for its LNG project. The process, published on 26 February 2026 and closing on 27 February, concerns activities at the Afungi site and is self-financed.

EGYPT

• President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi met with executives from Scatec and Envision Energy to discuss expanding renewable energy projects and increasing foreign direct investment. Discussions emphasized technology localization and raising the local content ratio in solar, wind, and storage projects.

• Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi announced the rapid expansion of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques to boost production. The strategy focuses particularly on the Western Desert and aims to improve efficiency and meet five-year plan targets.

BOTSWANA

• Serval Resources launched its 2026 initial field program at license PL061/2021 in the Kalahari Copper Belt, commencing a copper-silver targeted geophysical magnetic survey. The study, covering 62 line kilometers and focused on the Ngwako Pan–D’Kar contact, is expected to deliver results in the third quarter of 2026.

• The Bank of Botswana kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% for the second consecutive meeting, citing pressure from weak global diamond markets. Inflation remained within the target range at 4.1% in January 2026, and economic growth for 2026 is projected at 3.1%.

ANGOLA

• Sonangol plans to diversify its portfolio by expanding into critical minerals, particularly uranium and lithium, under its energy transition strategy, holding seven exploration licenses. The company sees rising demand for batteries and nuclear energy as an opportunity to transform Angola’s mineral reserves into a new revenue source.

• Advanced seismic data acquisition in the Kwanza Basin in 2026 aims to improve imaging of subsalt structures and deepwater potential, reducing exploration risks and accelerating discoveries in West Africa’s complex geological environments.

SOUTH AFRICA

• At the South Africa–Japan National Day reception, science, technology, and innovation were highlighted as central pillars of bilateral relations. More than 5,000 joint scientific publications were produced between 2017 and 2024. The green hydrogen partnership is expected to contribute more than 300 billion rand to the economy in the coming years and support potential exports to Japan.

• West Wits Mining’s Qala Shallows project strengthened its financing position following multidisciplinary due diligence completed in 2025. The project is expected to produce 944,000 ounces over 17 years, with annual capacity of approximately 70,000 ounces and economic contribution exceeding $1 billion.

ZAMBIA

• French Ambassador to Lusaka Thomas Rossignol met with Zambia’s Ministry of Energy, accompanied by an energy expert delegation, to enhance investment and technical cooperation in the petroleum and electricity sub-sectors. Discussions focused on private sector participation, innovative financing, and market reforms to strengthen long-term energy security.

NAMIBIA

• Capricorn Group reported net profit of 920 million Namibian dollars and a 15% return on equity for the six months ending 31 December 2025. Net interest income rose to 1.69 billion dollars, the non-performing loan ratio increased to 4.9%, and the capital adequacy ratio stood at 18.3%.