The African Continent - 26 February 2026

This daily brief examines heightened military posturing and strategic deployments amid ongoing diplomatic engagement, as major powers balance deterrence, signaling, and negotiation. It assesses force movements, operational readiness, and alliance dynamics alongside parallel diplomatic tracks, highlighting indicators that shape escalation risk and crisis management across multiple theaters. The brief is designed to support timely situational awareness by contextualizing tactical developments within broader geopolitical and security trends.

LIBYA

• The Libyan Tax Authority collected 3.99 billion Libyan dinars in 2025, reaching the highest revenue level since its establishment. Of this amount, 2.84 billion dinars were generated from the western region and 1.15 billion dinars from the eastern and southern regions.

• The High Council of State called for the removal of taxes lacking legal basis to address the economic crisis, the suspension of development expenditures, the creation of an import budget prioritizing essential goods, and stricter oversight of letters of credit through a joint mechanism with the Central Bank of Libya. The Council also proposed reducing non-essential imports and rationalizing public spending.

• The National Human Rights Institution of Libya warned that rising inflation, the depreciation of the dinar, and increasing poverty threaten social stability amid economic collapse. It identified political division and uncontrolled public spending as the main causes of the crisis and called on all authorities, including the Central Bank of Libya, to adopt a unified budget law, strengthen spending oversight, and combat corruption.

• Akakus Oil Operations announced that it completed drilling the M23 H horizontal well using the ADWOC 19 rig under approved drilling plans, reaching a production capacity of 3,000 barrels per day. Since January, the company has opened 15 wells, increasing production by 25,000 barrels per day.

• Airbus Helicopters is seeking to re-enter the Libyan market by presenting emergency medical air transport models to the Government of National Unity in Tripoli. The company is in discussions with authorities aiming to strengthen civil defense capacity following the September 11, 2023 floods in Derna. Airbus competes with Leonardo and Bell and hopes to benefit from renewed diplomatic rapprochement between Paris and Tripoli after an unsuccessful sales attempt in 2019.

• Since 2011, Libya has faced chronic power outages due to political division and infrastructure problems. The country is accelerating its energy transition with a target of 4 GW of renewable capacity by 2035 and an interim goal of 1.7 GW by 2026. TotalEnergies’ 500 MW Al-Sadada solar project is expected to come online this year, and additional solar investments of 1.5–2 GW are under discussion. Institutional fragmentation remains a structural risk for contract security and grid integration.

• The National Oil Corporation (NOC) issued a circular introducing austerity measures to ensure production continuity and reduce expenditures amid delays in budget approval. Experts stated that the situation reflects a management and planning crisis rather than bankruptcy, warning of risks given the economy’s dependence on oil revenues.

• According to economist Steve Hanke’s global currency performance ranking, the Libyan dinar depreciated by more than 34% against the US dollar, ranking as the fourth worst-performing currency globally.

• Protests continue in Zawiya following the House of Representatives and Central Bank decision to impose taxes on certain goods. Demonstrators protested deteriorating living conditions, rising prices, and declining purchasing power.

• The Libya–Egypt Business Council and the management of the Tripoli International Fair signed a protocol to organize the Egyptian Industrial Fair at the Tripoli International Fairgrounds. Founded in 1926 and celebrating its 100th anniversary this year, the Tripoli Fair was highlighted as a central platform for regional economic cooperation.

SOUTH AFRICA

• Rand Refinery, which processes approximately 225 tons of gold annually at its Germiston facility, has turned to external supply after volumes declined by 39% since 2014 and South Africa’s gold production fell to 90 tons in 2025. Under CEO Dean Subramanian, the company aims to secure supply from Ghana’s 186-ton output and integrate artisanal gold into formal channels, focusing on attracting industrial mining clients in Africa amid competition from Switzerland and India.

• Moody’s Ratings stated that the latest budget confirms credible improvements in fiscal indicators but emphasized that stronger and sustainable economic growth is necessary to achieve a meaningful and lasting reduction in public debt. Senior Vice President Evan Wohlmann noted that the budget confirms strong fiscal performance.

• The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and Investec will host the South Africa Macroeconomic Summit in London on March 5–6, 2026, to strengthen the country’s appeal to long-term foreign capital. The event will highlight an investment corridor supported by £12.1 billion in trade and £26 billion in UK foreign direct investment.

• Canada-based Lithium Africa Corp. signed an agreement to acquire up to 70% of Namli Exploration & Mining, which holds the Springbok Project in Namaqualand, Northern Cape. The deal includes $1.35 million in cash, $150,000 for debt settlement, and $2.5 million in payments over 24 months.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

• AFRICOM Commander General Dagvin Anderson is expected to meet President Félix Tshisekedi in Kinshasa on February 26 to advance the security dimension of the strategic partnership signed on December 4. The process is reportedly supported by a confidential memorandum signed between Marco Rubio and Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner.

• Kinshasa is accelerating efforts to integrate artisanal and small-scale miners (ASGM) into the formal economy under agreements signed in 2026. A framework agreement between the Ministry of Mines and Phoenix Capital B.V. aims to digitalize and enhance traceability in the gold sector through the AXIS and GOLDConnect programs.

• Kinshasa’s decision to cap cobalt exports at 18,125 tons in the final quarter of 2025 and introduce a 96,600-ton quota for 2026 (including a 10% strategic reserve) has highlighted China’s supply dependence. Although China produces 78% of global refined cobalt, it relies heavily on imported raw materials. Slower shipments have pushed prices higher, and the United States is reportedly seeking to expand its influence in Central Africa’s critical minerals sector.

ZIMBABWE

• The government’s immediate ban on lithium concentrate and raw lithium exports has prompted Chinese miners to accelerate local processing investments. Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe, owned by Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, is preparing to commission a $400 million processing plant.

• Zimbabwe’s decision to halt lithium concentrate exports drove lithium carbonate futures prices in China up 12% intraday to 187,000 yuan per ton, closing at 173,700 yuan amid low stock levels and recovering demand. Analysts expect prices to remain volatile but strong.

• Valterra Platinum announced it has been unable to access approximately $100 million due to Zimbabwe’s foreign exchange retention policy requiring 30% of export revenues to be converted into local currency. While partial payments have begun, the accumulated amount reflects foreign currency shortages and pressure on investor confidence. The company reported that 2025 profits doubled due to rising platinum prices.

EGYPT

• The IMF announced the release of approximately $2 billion to Egypt following completion of the fifth and sixth reviews under the Extended Fund Facility, plus $273 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, totaling $2.3 billion. The four-year $8 billion program approved in March 2024 remains tied to comprehensive economic reform conditions.

• Cairo firmly denied claims that Ethiopia would gain Red Sea access in exchange for flexibility on the GERD issue. Official sources stressed that Egypt’s position on water security remains unchanged and that Red Sea governance and security fall solely under the authority of littoral states.

• Badr Petroleum reported average production of 6,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the first half of fiscal year 2025/26, exceeding targets. Output at the Badr-1 field surpassed 7,500 barrels per day, recoverable reserves increased from 3 million to 36 million barrels, and plans include horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to boost Western Desert production.

ALGERIA

• According to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, Algeria’s pipeline gas exports to the EU rose 22% month-on-month in January 2026, increasing its market share to 22%. Norway maintained first place with 58%, and Italy remained the largest importer.

• Pope Leo XIV is expected to visit Algeria in April 2026 as part of an Africa tour, marking the first papal visit to the country. Discussions are expected to focus on interfaith dialogue and peace.

• Algeria and Burkina Faso discussed supplying refined petroleum products to Burkina Faso and strengthening cooperation between Sonatrach and SONABHY. Talks included LPG and propane supply, construction of a butane filling facility, cooperation between Sonelgaz and SONABEL, and knowledge transfer in mining.

ANGOLA

• Pope Leo XIV is also expected to visit Luanda in April 2026 during his Africa tour, which is scheduled for April 15–23 and includes Yaoundé, Douala, Luanda, and Malabo.

• Sonangol announced it is negotiating loans with Chinese financial institutions for the $4.8 billion second phase of the $6.2 billion Lobito refinery project. The financing will not involve oil collateral, and production is targeted to begin in December 2027.

NIGERIA

• Under coordination by National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, Nigeria is negotiating with Turkish, German, and US firms to procure second-hand Mi-35, Mi-17, Bell 412, and H225 helicopters to rapidly enhance air operation capabilities amid rising security threats.

• The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) cleared structures and encroachments along the Ihovbor–Ajaokuta 330kV transmission line corridor in Edo State during a two-day operation, restoring right-of-way access. The company stated that three months’ notice had been given and compensation paid.

MOZAMBIQUE

• Technip Energies won an engineering and procurement contract for the Coral Norte Floating LNG (FLNG) project in the Rovuma Basin, which aims to expand offshore gas export capacity and strengthen Mozambique’s LNG position globally.

• On February 26 in Geneva, Mozambique signed a Host Country Agreement allowing the UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) to establish a country office. The office will support implementation of human rights strategies, and Mozambique will present its Fourth Universal Periodic Review report (2021–2025 cycle) on May 5.

NIGER

• Rapprochement between Algerian President Tebboune and Niger’s Tiani is visible through the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline project, though Algeria’s external intelligence and security institutions reportedly play a decisive role in reviving relations. The development signals strategic repositioning in energy cooperation and security coordination amid tensions with Mali and AES dynamics.

• Pro-Moscow pan-African circles are preparing to gather in Niamey during the visit of South African politician Julius Malema. Activist Kemi Seba, reportedly subject to an international arrest warrant issued by Benin, is also expected to attend.

MALI

• Ministers of defense, diplomacy, trade, and infrastructure from Mali and Niger met in Ouagadougou on February 25 to assess AES’s second-year roadmap. On February 26, high-level outcomes across three core pillars were set for approval, with plans to deepen political and security integration.

ZAMBIA

• The government of Zambia rejected a proposed US health funding package worth approximately $1 billion, citing concerns over alignment with national interests. The draft agreement reportedly required five years of $340 million in local contributions and cooperation in health data and mining. Authorities stated no agreement would be signed until revisions are made.

• The Ministry of Energy signed an implementation agreement with Goldenray Energy Limited for the construction of a 118 MWp solar power plant in Sinazongwe, Southern Province. Backed by a Dubai-based investment fund, the project is scheduled to become operational in early 2027.