AFRICA BULLETIN — ISSUE 07

Executive Summary

Africa's security environment remained highly volatile, marked by intense clashes across Ethiopia, Sudan, the DRC, and the Sahel. The widespread deployment of cheap drones has shortened the distance between frontlines and capitals, fueling mutual accusations among regional actors. Meanwhile, Somalia faced deep instability driven by severe clashes in Baidoa and growing uncertainty over the financing of international security missions. Despite mounting security crises, geopolitical engagement and diplomatic maneuvering intensified. The war in northern Ethiopia brought Addis Ababa's relations with Eritrea and Egypt to a breaking point. Simultaneously, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger used the UN to accuse France and Ukraine of destabilization, while pivoting toward new partnerships with Algeria, China, and Gulf states. The US also increasingly leveraged diplomatic tools—such as visa restrictions and health aid agreements—to exert pressure in Sudan, South Africa, Ghana, and Zimbabwe. Energy and mining investments continued to advance despite persistent security risks. Kenya broke ground on a $16 billion oil refinery, Angola signed major deepwater oil exploration contracts, and Mozambique accelerated its LNG projects. Driven by a surge in resource nationalism, Burkina Faso inaugurated its first local gold refinery, while Niger moved to expand the state's share in its uranium development. Overall, the week illustrates that Africa's weak institutional capacity and informal networks are deeply intertwined with expanding international capital flows. Western, Chinese, and Gulf investors continue to position themselves around energy, critical minerals, and strategic infrastructure, while state efforts to secure local processing capacity increasingly reshape the continent's geopolitical competition.