The African Continent - 25 February 2026

This daily brief examines heightened military posturing and strategic deployments amid ongoing diplomatic engagement, as major powers balance deterrence, signaling, and negotiation. It assesses force movements, operational readiness, and alliance dynamics alongside parallel diplomatic tracks, highlighting indicators that shape escalation risk and crisis management across multiple theaters. The brief is designed to support timely situational awareness by contextualizing tactical developments within broader geopolitical and security trends.

LIBYA

• The Libya Tax Authority collected 3.99 billion Libyan dinars in 2025, reaching the highest revenue level since its establishment. Of the total, 2.84 billion dinars were collected from the western region, while 1.15 billion dinars came from the eastern and southern regions.

• The High Council of State called for the removal of taxes lacking legal basis, the suspension of development expenditures, and the creation of an import budget prioritizing essential goods to address the economic crisis. The Council also proposed strict monitoring of letters of credit through a joint mechanism with the Central Bank of Libya, reducing non-essential imports, and rationalizing public spending.

• The National Institution for Human Rights in Libya warned that rising inflation, the depreciation of the dinar, and increasing poverty threaten social stability amid economic collapse. The institution identified political division and uncontrolled public spending as the main causes of the crisis and called for a unified budget law, expenditure oversight, and anti-corruption measures.

• Akakos Oil Operations announced that it completed drilling of the M23 H horizontal well within the planned schedule and without technical issues, under approved drilling plans. The well has an initial production capacity of approximately 3,000 barrels per day.

• Sirte Oil Company successfully retrieved drilling pipes at the B1-LP3D exploratory well in the El-Khayr field, regaining technical control. Under the supervision of the National Oil Corporation, the company has moved to the final completion stage to bring the well into production.

• Brega Oil Marketing Company stated that fuel and LPG shortages were caused by delayed shipments and weather conditions, receiving 12 or, at times, only 8 tankers instead of the monthly requirement of 16. The company aims to increase supply through the daily distribution of 3,000 cylinders, procurement of 2 million new cylinders, and local production plans. It also announced that 1.5 million of the 2 million LPG cylinders have arrived and that second-phase registrations have opened. Additionally, in cooperation with the Libya Iron and Steel Company, local production of 6,000 cylinders has begun.

• In a meeting chaired by Audit Bureau President Khaled Shakshak, officials from the Central Bank of Libya, the National Oil Corporation, and the Ministry of Finance reviewed the fuel supply process. The meeting emphasized full compliance with general tender results, disciplined spending, strengthened monitoring mechanisms to prevent smuggling, and enhanced institutional coordination and transparency.

EGYPT

• Capricorn Energy announced plans to expand investments to increase production in Egypt’s Western Desert fields. Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi discussed with company executives ways to boost investments and domestic production through more flexible contract models and new drilling techniques.

• President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi met with the chairman of China’s GCL to discuss cooperation in renewable energy and localization of production. The parties emphasized that Egypt’s investment climate and solar energy potential offer advantages for projects.

• Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aati and Investment Minister Mohamed Farid held separate meetings with Scatec’s CEO to discuss renewable energy investments, including a wind turbine manufacturing facility and a solar-powered desalination project. They also discussed simplifying licensing procedures, increasing technology transfer and local content, and supporting Egypt’s goal of becoming a green hydrogen and clean energy export hub.

• The Ministry of Investment reviewed restructuring the Egypt Sovereign Fund’s operational model to transform state assets into higher value-added investment vehicles and increase private sector partnerships. The fund’s managed assets have reached $2 billion, and the transfer of 40 out of 60 public companies to the fund is planned.

• Eni S.p.A. is expected to contribute an additional 80 million cubic feet of gas per day to Egypt’s production, supporting energy supply.

• The 1.1 GW Obelisk Solar and Battery Project was commissioned with a 500 MW solar plant and a 600 MWh energy storage system, supporting Egypt’s target of generating 42% of electricity from renewable sources by 2035.

• Transport Minister Kamel El-Wazir announced progress in rail-laying and station construction on Egypt’s first high-speed railway linking the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. The project includes a 578-feddan maintenance workshop and a control center for three lines, aiming to strengthen logistics capacity.

• Petrobel brought the Belayim Offshore 133 well in the Gulf of Suez online with an initial production rate of 1,500 barrels per day. The project is part of a new investment program between Eni S.p.A. and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation.

ANGOLA

• Azule Energy, a joint venture between BP plc and Eni S.p.A., began oil production at the Ndungu field in Block 15/06 via the N’goma FPSO. Under the Agogo Integrated West Hub project, production will later be transferred to the Agogo FPSO, targeting a combined daily capacity of 175,000 barrels from the Agogo and Ndungu fields. Sonangol E&P and Sinopec International are project stakeholders.

• Sonangol announced net profits exceeding $750 million in 2025 and plans to diversify into critical minerals such as uranium, lithium, and quartz as part of its energy transition strategy. The company reported production of 217,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day last year.

• BP and Azule Energy announced an oil discovery at the Algaita-01 well in Block 15/06, drilled at a water depth of 667 meters by the Saipem 12000 drillship. The well, launched on January 10, 2026, is located 18 km from the Olombendo FPSO.

ALGERIA

• Representatives of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s ENERGOINVEST and HIFA-OIL met with the Algerian Investment Agency to discuss investment opportunities in industry and energy. HIFA-OIL also plans talks with Sonatrach regarding potential cooperation.

• Sonatrach announced that it will allocate 75% of its 2026–2030 investments to exploration and production to increase oil and gas reserves. The program covers 66% of national hydrocarbon fields and aims to drill approximately 500 exploration wells while investing in advanced 2D and 3D seismic technologies.

• Rapprochement between President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and Niger’s leader Abdourahamane Tiani has come to the forefront through the Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline project. Algeria’s foreign intelligence and security institutions have played a role in revitalizing relations, signaling strategic repositioning in energy cooperation and security coordination amid tensions with Mali and evolving AES dynamics.

NIGERIA

• Starlink launched its Business Priority package priced at 159,000 naira per month in Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, where capacity constraints had resulted in “Sold Out” status. The service primarily targets businesses and high-income users.

• The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps in Anambra announced joint inspections with NUPENG-affiliated LPG retailers to combat illegal gas vendors and improve storage and distribution safety.

• The Niger State government ordered the immediate closure of unlicensed mining sites in Gada Daya and Gada Eregi, stating that only operators licensed by the Federal Ministry of Solid Minerals Development and registered with the state may operate.

• Dangote Petroleum Refinery signed agreements with 12 major distribution companies to supply up to 65 million liters of gasoline per day, aiming to meet domestic demand and export a surplus of 15–20 million liters, reducing fuel import dependency.

• Dangote Group signed a $400 million equipment agreement with Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group as part of plans to expand refinery capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. The deal secures heavy and “green” machinery for petrochemical and fertilizer projects.

• The Nigerian National Assembly’s joint petroleum committees announced an investigation beginning February 25 in the Senate to examine NNPC Ltd. and its subsidiaries’ expenditures and the full remittance of royalty and tax revenues to the Federation Account. The probe will also cover the Pipeline Surveillance Contract, the performance of NUPRC and NMDPRA, and implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act.

• The Nigeria–China Strategic Partnership and NACCIMA agreed to strengthen institutional coordination to accelerate SME-focused industrial growth. They aim to enable Nigerian businesses to benefit more from trade, manufacturing, and investment flows under FOCAC cooperation and China’s zero-tariff policy for African products.

• China’s decision to eliminate tariffs on many African products starting May 1 presents alternative market opportunities for Nigerian exporters. Nigeria’s exports to the United States fell 14% in 2025 to $4.9 billion, while exports to China increased 81% over three years to $3.17 billion, with over 90% consisting of energy products.

• Under the coordination of National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, Nigeria is negotiating with Turkish, German, and U.S. firms to procure second-hand Mi-35, Mi-17, Bell 412, and H225 helicopters to rapidly enhance air operational capacity amid growing security threats.

SOUTH AFRICA

• EDF Power Solutions commissioned the 420 MW Koruson 1 wind cluster, consisting of 78 turbines on the Eastern and Northern Cape border. The project was awarded under REIPPPP Round 5 in 2021 and is connected to the national grid under a 20-year power purchase agreement.

• Mulilo achieved financial close for the 219 MW Orkney Solar PV project in North West Province. The plant is expected to generate approximately 478 GWh annually, supplying electricity to around 210,000 households under a power purchase agreement with Etana Energy.

• The Offshore Petroleum Association of South Africa stated that over 10 trillion cubic feet of discovered natural gas resources exist onshore and offshore. It further suggested that exploration could reveal an additional 260+ TCF of gas and over 25 billion barrels of oil potential.

• The South African government announced plans to leverage 40 trillion rand worth of iron reserves and attract 2 trillion rand in investment over five years to expand the critical minerals sector. It aims to create 1.8 million youth jobs through expanded skills development programs. The European Union’s €2 million support and Anglo American’s plan for a global research institute were also highlighted.

ZIMBABWE

• Valterra Platinum announced that it has been unable to collect approximately $100 million in foreign currency receivables from 2025 due to the rule requiring 30% of export revenues to be converted into local currency. Authorities attributed the delays to cash flow constraints but stated that partial payments have begun.

• Mines Minister Polite Kambamura announced the immediate suspension of lithium concentrate and raw ore exports to encourage local processing investments. Following the decision, shares of Sigma Lithium, Albemarle Corp., and Lithium Americas Corp. rose in the United States.

• The Harare Magistrates’ Court postponed the case against Faith Zaba and Kholwani Nyathi, who are charged with insulting President Emmerson Mnangagwa, pending the outcome of a High Court review. The hearing was adjourned to April 9.

• The Emmerson Mnangagwa administration rejected Washington’s $367 million health financing package over concerns regarding U.S. access to sovereignty and national health data. U.S. Ambassador Pamela Tremont confirmed that negotiations had collapsed, while Harare stated it would continue combating HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria with its own resources.

NAMIBIA

• Koryx Copper announced positive results from 13 drill holes at the Haib Copper Project and stated that its 55,000-meter drilling program will be completed by July 2026. The company aims to update its pre-feasibility study in the second half of the year, with the project expected to produce an average of 88,000 tons of copper annually over a 24-year mine life.

• TotalEnergies reported identifying between 800 million and 1.1 billion barrels of recoverable reserves at the Mopane field in PEL 83 and aims to take a final investment decision in 2028. The company stated that total discovered offshore resources, including Venus and Mopane, have reached 1.5 billion barrels, with production plans exceeding 200,000 barrels per day.

• Kendrick Resources Plc finalized an $800,000 agreement to acquire a 70% stake in the EPL4458 and EPL6691 rare earth exploration licenses near Lüderitz, strengthening its position in Namibia’s critical minerals sector.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

• The United Arab Emirates and the United States are increasing investments and signing new agreements with Kinshasa to counterbalance China’s dominance in critical minerals, particularly cobalt. The U.S. initiative Pax Silica has emerged as a potential mechanism for coordination in supply chains.

• A Maniema Province delegation met in Dar es Salaam with representatives of the Tanzania Private Sector Foundation and the Tanzania National Chamber of Commerce to discuss trade and investment cooperation. The parties emphasized that the Central Corridor railway project would accelerate regional trade.

ZAMBIA

• MTN Zambia and the Zambia Information and Communication Technology Authority announced plans to install 80 fully solar-powered 4G telecom towers nationwide in 2026 to reduce the digital divide. The first tower, commissioned in Katete, will provide connectivity to more than 20,900 people, 10 schools, and 4 health centers.

• Egypt announced it is considering investment in the $5 billion Batoka Gorge Hydroelectric Project, a joint venture between Zambia and Zimbabwe. Cairo’s interest was discussed during talks with Zambia’s Minister of Energy.

MOZAMBIQUE

• LNG projects worth approximately $50 billion on the Afungi Peninsula have resumed under the leadership of TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil. Area 1 and Area 4 aim to produce 13 million and 18 million tons per year respectively, with first shipments planned for 2029. The projects are expected to host around 400 LNG and condensate tankers annually, with marine operations structured accordingly and a final investment decision anticipated in 2026.

GHANA

• Cybele Energy, a Ghana-based company, identified recoverable potential exceeding 400 million barrels in Guyana’s S7 Block and targets production of 160,000 barrels per day. Under its 2023 license, the first well is planned to be drilled within 18 months, subject to approvals and rig availability. The block is located approximately 50 km from ExxonMobil’s Liza fields.

MALI

• A senior United Kingdom official met with Mali’s Chief of General Staff Oumar Diarra to discuss security cooperation in defense, training, and capacity building. The parties reaffirmed their commitment to continued dialogue, experience-sharing, and military training support within the framework of regional stability.

• NDC Energie acquired approximately 80 fuel stations previously operated by TotalEnergies, fully ending the French group’s more than 25 years of retail operations in Mali. Led by Mamadou Niangadou, the company has transitioned to an integrated structure covering import, transportation, storage, and retail.

UGANDA

• Spiro secured $50 million in debt financing, with participation from Afreximbank and other investors, to expand its electric motorcycle fleet and battery-swapping infrastructure in Uganda. The company operates more than 80,000 electric motorcycles and over 2,500 battery stations across six countries.

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

• Panoro Energy agreed to acquire Kosmos Energy’s 40.375% stake in Block G for $180 million upfront, with total consideration reaching up to $219.5 million including performance-based payments. Upon completion, Panoro’s stake will increase to 54.625%, strengthening long-term production capacity at the Ceiba and Okume fields. Closing is expected in mid-2026 following regulatory approvals.

BURKINA FASO

• Burkina Faso plans to increase state participation in mining by targeting up to a 40% stake in the Kiaka gold mine through SOPAMIB, in addition to the mandatory 15% free carried interest. The government emphasized its objective of maximizing sovereign revenues while seeking a new balance between investor rights and state control.

KENYA

• An International Monetary Fund delegation is expected to visit Nairobi from February 24 to March 4, 2026, to discuss a new credit arrangement following the expiration of the $3.6 billion program in April. The Kenyan government stated that a potential agreement would support fiscal reforms, macroeconomic stability, and investor confidence.

BOTSWANA

• Botswana Diamonds changed its name to Botswana Minerals plc and updated its AIM ticker to BMIN. The company expanded its diamond-focused strategy to include AI-supported copper and multi-mineral exploration, identifying 11 copper targets using a 95,000 km² database and securing eight new licenses.

MOROCCO

• French defense industry representatives and diplomatic delegations met in Rabat with the Royal Armed Forces to discuss military cooperation projects involving submarines, radar systems, armored vehicles, and helicopter maintenance. France aims to strengthen its long-term influence in Morocco through financial models including offsets and public-private partnership solutions.

SOMALIA

• Under a $150 million World Bank-supported electricity project, the Mogadishu administration awarded multimillion-dollar contracts to Chinese, U.S., and Turkish firms for solar energy and battery storage projects across various regions, including Puntland and Somaliland. The projects are expected to be completed within 18 months and aim to increase the country’s electricity access rate, currently at 51%.

ETHIOPIA

• Isaac Herzog arrived in Addis Ababa for a two-day official visit and was received by the Foreign Minister. He is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Sahle-Work Zewde. The visit took place following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland.

AFRICA – GENERAL

• The International Monetary Fund launched the formal nomination process for the head of its Africa Department following the departure of Abebe Aemro Selassie after ten years in the role.

• As the war in Ukraine entered its fourth year, Moscow was alleged to have covertly recruited more than 1,400 Africans, including citizens of Kenya and Nigeria. African governments initiated diplomatic efforts to secure the return of their nationals.