The African Continent - 2 March 2026

This daily brief examines heightened military posturing and strategic deployments amid ongoing diplomatic engagement, as major powers balance deterrence, signaling, and negotiation. It assesses force movements, operational readiness, and alliance dynamics alongside parallel diplomatic tracks, highlighting indicators that shape escalation risk and crisis management across multiple theaters. The brief is designed to support timely situational awareness by contextualizing tactical developments within broader geopolitical and security trends.

LIBYA

• UK-based Petrofac has suspended work on its oil project in Libya, reduced personnel numbers, and announced that operations have been temporarily halted while discussions with the client continue regarding the future of the project.

• With the commissioning of a new early production unit at the Al-Mabruk field, daily output has increased to 25,000–30,000 barrels, and the NOC announced that it aims to raise total production at the Al-Jurf and Mabrouk fields to 40,000 barrels per day by the end of March.

• The General Electricity Company has begun maintenance work on the flue system of the fifth unit at the Zueitina Gas Power Plant, initiating preparatory steps ahead of a comprehensive overhaul, with the move aimed at strengthening efficiency and grid stability.

• The Libya Business Council, in cooperation with Tetra Tech, launched the first session of an institutional dialogue initiative aimed at improving the business environment between the public and private sectors, with economic diversification priorities and proposals to establish a direct communication platform highlighted during the meeting.

DRC

• The collapse of a bridge near the Kasumbalesa crossing on the Zambian border due to flooding disrupted shipments by cutting off Congo’s main copper export corridor, as the world’s second-largest producer, and authorities requested the use of alternative routes while efforts continue to reopen the road within 48 hours.

• President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the extension of the SANDF’s 450-troop deployment under MONUSCO until 31 July 2026, aiming to complete the phased withdrawal process, with the six-month extension estimated to cost approximately 883 million rand.

NIGERIA

• Dangote Cement more than doubled its net profit in 2025 to a record 1.01 trillion naira, while revenues rose 20% to 4.31 trillion naira; the company announced the commissioning of a new 3 million-ton capacity grinding plant in Côte d’Ivoire and aims to expand capacity across Africa.

• President Bola Tinubu hosted a delegation led by AFRICOM Commander General Dagvin Anderson in Abuja on 8 February 2026, deepening security and defense cooperation, with the engagement—following U.S. airstrikes in Sokoto in December 2025 and the deployment of advisory teams—signaling a new, more technical and intelligence-focused phase in counterterrorism efforts.

• The federal government and the Africa Finance Corporation signed a $1.3 billion investment agreement covering a 1 million ton-per-year alumina refinery and a national geoscience data program; the 20-year project is expected to contribute $1.2 billion annually to GDP and generate a total economic value of $25 billion.

• Al Liwan Group announced an initial $5 million investment in the Owala Dam project in Osun State, with the project expected to begin swiftly following approval, create employment, and boost economic activity in water resources and fisheries.

ZIMBABWE

• Valterra Platinum announced that it is owed approximately $100 million by the government under the mandatory foreign currency retention policy, stating that the system requiring 30% of export revenues to be converted into local currency has led to liquidity pressures and payment delays across the sector, including at the Unki mine.

• Construction has begun on a third lithium sulfate plant led by Sichuan Yahua, while Zimbabwe is accelerating its transition to value-added production by banning raw lithium exports starting January 2027, with investments progressing in parallel with rising global lithium demand.

EGYPT

• Taqa Arabia’s 2025 net profit increased by 50% to 1.05 billion Egyptian pounds, while revenues rose to 25.59 billion pounds; the company announced plans to purchase 18 million treasury shares and stated that it is holding talks regarding a potential acquisition in the consumer finance sector.

• The Egypt–Bulgaria Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation Committee, convened in Cairo, signed a protocol to strengthen cooperation in 19 areas, and the parties stated their intention to increase trade volume, which reached approximately $1 billion in 2024, and to deepen partnership in investment and industry.

NAMIBIA

• Rhino Resources confirmed its third discovery at the Volans-1X well in the Orange Basin, achieving daily flows of approximately 33 million standard cubic feet of gas and 5,300 barrels of condensate, and stated that development planning has begun at the PEL 85 license area, supporting Namibia’s target of first oil production by 2030.

ANGOLA

• The U.S. Chargé d’Affaires in Luanda, Shannon Nagy Cazeau, described Angola as a strategic partner for a stronger and more secure future, announcing that bilateral cooperation would be deepened, with regional security—particularly the Great Lakes region and the peace process in eastern Congo—highlighted during discussions.

SOUTH AFRICA

• At Wits University, the Wits-SAHLI hydrogen facility—established through a partnership between Air Liquide and the Localisation Support Fund with a 100 million rand investment—is planned to become operational in 2028, with the 110 kW electrolyzer-equipped pilot plant expected to support local production capacity, skills development, and industrial localization.

• According to data from the International Institute for Sustainable Development, fossil fuel subsidies increased threefold in real terms during Ramaphosa’s tenure to approximately 200 billion rand, with much of the increase attributed to Eskom support and carbon tax exemptions; renewable incentives remained limited and policy uncertainty reportedly slowed the energy transition.

• Rio Tinto has decided to restart the $473 million Zulti South mineral sands project after a six-year hiatus, with construction set to begin in the first quarter of 2026 and commercial production targeted for the fourth quarter of 2028, aiming to extend the life of Richards Bay Minerals operations until 2050.

ZAMBIA

• The collapse of a bridge near the Kasumbalesa crossing due to flooding disrupted shipments along the main copper export corridor at the Zambia border, with efforts ongoing to reopen the road within 48 hours.

• The EAPP and SAPP signed a memorandum of understanding to increase regional electricity trade and strengthen regulatory harmonization; however, the start of trade appears contingent on the completion of the Zambia–Tanzania interconnector line planned for completion by 2029.