The African Continent - 16 February 2026

STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE DAILY

 Region: The African Continent

Date: 16 February 2026

Scope: Security | Energy | Politics | Investment

Classification: Client Confidential

 As of 16 February 2026, energy supply security, competition over critical minerals, and efforts to strengthen financial sovereignty are intensifying across Africa. In North Africa, Libya and Algeria are working to expand production capacity and deepen energy integration with Europe. The restart of LNG operations in Mozambique and Chinese-backed gas infrastructure initiatives in Nigeria are reinforcing the continent’s weight in the global gas equation. A new offshore discovery in Angola and field development plans in Kenya support the production outlook. At the same time, investment and diplomatic activity around lithium and copper in the DRC, heavy rare earth elements in Namibia, and platinum group metals in South Africa indicate that major power competition is hardening around critical mineral supply chains.

Financial and institutional repositioning is also gaining momentum. The African Development Bank’s proposal for a new financial architecture and Afreximbank’s divergence from global credit rating structures reflect an effort to reduce dependence on external capital and gain greater control over risk pricing. Meanwhile, the military political deadlock in Sudan, influence competition across the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, and security and transparency debates in Nigeria underline continued fragility. The overall picture points to stronger energy and mining driven growth potential, yet persistent geopolitical and security risks remain decisive for the investment climate.

FOCUS COUNTRIES AND SUBJECTS

Libya: Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah and High Council of State President Mohammed Takala discussed commitment to the unified development agreement for 2026 and closer economic coordination. The talks emphasized limiting the depreciation of the dinar, strengthening the role of the Central Bank, and maintaining the fiscal reform process.

The National Oil Corporation announced that as of 14 February 2026 fuel stocks stood at 20,037 cubic meters of gasoline and 17,897 cubic meters of diesel in Tripoli, 30,958 cubic meters of gasoline and 24,483 cubic meters of diesel in Misrata, and 26,741 cubic meters of gasoline and 6,480 cubic meters of diesel in Zawiya. Diesel and gas shipments are continuing through Tobruk and Benghazi ports. Offloading operations are proceeding on schedule and domestic market supply is secured.

NOC Chairman Masoud Suleiman signed the UN-backed Oil and Gas Methane Partnership agreement, bringing the institution into the UNEP-supervised global initiative. Alignment with international environmental standards and stronger cooperation with actors such as the EU and the World Bank are expected as Libya moves to reduce methane emissions and gas flaring.

Brega Petroleum Marketing Company confirmed that fuel supply across the country continues without disruption and according to plan. Tanker offloading is ongoing in Tripoli, Misrata, Benghazi, and Zawiya. Additional shipments are ensuring stability in the domestic market.

The National Oil Corporation signed a memorandum of understanding with MOL Group covering hydrocarbon exploration, field development, and oil trading. Following LEES 2026, the expected return of companies such as Chevron, ExxonMobil, Repsol, bp, and OMV, alongside interest from 37 international oil companies in the licensing round, signals a recovery in the investment climate in line with Libya’s target of 2 million barrels per day.

Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah and Central Bank Governor Naji Issa discussed cash liquidity, regulation of the foreign exchange market, and letters of credit for essential imports. Both sides agreed to maintain current fiscal measures to prevent further depreciation of the dinar and contain inflation.

Namibia: Japan has accelerated efforts to secure dysprosium and terbium supply through the Lofdal Heavy Rare Earth Elements Project in partnership with JOGMEC. An independent pre feasibility study submitted in January 2026 highlighted the project’s potential to diversify long term supply outside China.

Nida entered into a partnership with Ghanaian businessman Jory Adu Boahene for the Lüderitz Bay oil and gas supply base project valued at approximately 4 billion Namibian dollars. Nida is expected to hold 51 percent while other partners will hold 49 percent. Businessman Josef Andreas, linked to Swapo, is also associated with the project. The initiative is based on private sector financing and the implementation framework is under discussion with Namport.

Namibia is increasing its focus on onshore assets alongside deepwater exploration in the Orange Basin. Production tests are planned in the Kavango Basin for 2026. ReconAfrica reported hydrocarbon indications at a depth of 4,200 meters. The discovery strengthens investor interest due to lower development costs and shorter term production potential.

South Africa: Sibanye Stillwater signed a 10 year power purchase agreement with Etana Energy for 220 MW of renewable energy, equivalent to around 600 GWh annually. The agreement is expected to become operational by the end of 2027. It is projected to prevent 648,000 tons of emissions per year and cover more than 35 percent of the company’s 2040 carbon neutrality target.

Sibanye Stillwater also signed a long term agreement with NOA Group to secure 401 GWh of renewable energy annually through the Eskom grid. The deal includes an additional 100 GWh of flexible capacity. Under a take and pay model, electricity will be supplied to mining operations through wheeling via the grid.

President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a target of attracting 2 trillion rand in investment to the critical minerals sector within five years, with platinum group metals and rare earths at the forefront. Plans include strengthening rail, port, and energy infrastructure, increasing exploration funding, and promoting electric vehicle incentives.

Swiss asset management group Pictet, with 942 billion dollars in global assets under management, opened its first African office in South Africa. The number of millionaires across the continent is expected to rise by 65 percent over the next decade.

Lyra Energy, partnered with Scatec, signed power purchase agreements with three major commercial and industrial clients for the 255 MW Thakadu solar plant. Financial close and construction start for the first phase are planned for the first quarter of 2026.

Egypt: Cairo announced the launch of the 500 billion dollar Team Africa initiative covering nearly 300 development projects across the continent. Under Egypt’s NEPAD chairmanship, the budget was expanded and an initial 100 million dollar fund was pledged for the Nile Basin. An Africa Business Summit is planned to accelerate public private sector investment.

Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawi presented Egypt’s mining reforms and investment incentives at Mining Indaba 2026 in South Africa. Mining was emphasized as a strategic pillar of economic diversification and industrialization.

The Egypt Bulgaria joint committee signed a protocol to expand economic, scientific, and technical cooperation in 19 areas. Bilateral trade reached nearly 1 billion dollars in 2024 and further growth is targeted.

Egypt and Canada signed three new development projects worth a total of 552 million Egyptian pounds. Canada’s active cooperation portfolio in Egypt reached 1.4 billion Egyptian pounds.

Minister of Industry Khaled Hashem met with Nissan Africa representatives to discuss expanding production capacity and exports to African markets. The company exported 25,000 vehicles to Africa over the past three years, increased production to 30,000 units, and aims to add 10,000 vehicles annually through a new production line.

Algeria: During the sixth High Level Energy Dialogue between Algeria and the European Union, natural gas and renewable hydrogen cooperation were identified as priority areas. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to deepen strategic partnership through the SoutH2 Corridor project, methane emission reduction, and the development of energy infrastructure and electricity interconnections.

Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab and Minister Mourad Acal met with Mauritanian Energy and Petroleum Minister Mohamed Ould Khaled to discuss cooperation in energy, hydrocarbons, and mining. The parties agreed to strengthen joint investments across the value chain under Sonatrach’s leadership, including exploration, production, transport, as well as phosphate and fertilizer industries, technical training, and knowledge transfer.

Algeria and Mauritania also confirmed coordination across the full hydrocarbon value chain through Sonatrach. Talks highlighted phosphate and fertilizer industries, electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure, solar energy projects, and capacity building initiatives.

Within the Algeria EU framework, both sides entered a new negotiation phase for 2026 and 2027 under the 2005 Association Agreement. Discussions focus on investment, energy cooperation, and facilitating Algerian product access to the EU market. The aim is to strengthen trade flows, regulatory alignment, and energy dialogue.

The Algeria Niger Nigeria Trans Saharan Gas Pipeline project gained strong political backing following Nigerien President Tiani’s visit to Algiers. Of the planned 4,200 kilometer pipeline, 1,800 kilometers remain to be completed. The feasibility study is expected in 2026. The project aims to position Algeria as a key energy hub for Europe.

Nigeria: Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El Rufai requested clarification from National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu regarding allegations that the Office of the National Security Adviser imported approximately 10 kilograms of highly toxic thallium sulfate from Poland. El Rufai called for transparency on the intended use of the substance, authorization procedures, storage conditions, and coordination with agencies such as NAFDAC and NCDC in the interest of public safety.

NNPCL signed a tripartite memorandum of understanding with China Gas Holdings and PCCS to strengthen cooperation across the natural gas value chain. The agreement covers the conversion of flare gas into LNG, floating and onshore LNG projects, and gas fired power and industrial facilities, with the aim of advancing projects to commercial stage.

NNPC also signed a similar tripartite agreement with China Gas Holdings and PCCS to develop gas infrastructure. The framework includes flare gas monetization, floating and land based LNG projects, gas fired plants, and discussions on supply volumes of 15 MMSCFD as well as financing structures.

The Ministry of Mines accelerated a comprehensive review of mining licenses under the Nigeria Solid Minerals Corp established in January 2025. In cooperation with KPMG and SMDF, the process aims to regularize license status and identify priority assets. A technical committee is expected to submit exploration plans within one month.

PETROAN announced it will file legal action against NNPCL CEO Bayo Ojulari if the Port Harcourt Refinery does not reopen by 1 March 2026 despite a 1.5 billion dollar rehabilitation. The association is calling for an investigation into expenditures and warns of economic and technical risks linked to continued closure.

The Ministry of Mines is advancing restructuring under NSMC through a joint review of licenses with KPMG. An initial report is expected in the coming weeks. The process seeks to prepare assets for public private partnerships and strengthen efforts against illegal mining, particularly in the north.

Foreign direct investment inflows into the telecommunications sector reached 208.51 million dollars in the third quarter of 2025, marking a fourteen fold increase year on year. Total inflows for January to September reached 392.92 million dollars, indicating annual recovery despite volatility.

Construction of UTM Offshore’s 5 billion dollar floating LNG project with an annual capacity of 2.8 million tons is expected to begin in the second half of 2026, though final investment decision has not yet been announced. Around 80 percent of output is planned to be off taken by Vitol. Delays related to gas supply have slowed progress.

The deployment of US military personnel for training and intelligence cooperation signals a new phase in Abuja Washington security relations. The government stressed that the mission is limited to advisory and capacity building roles. The development has triggered domestic debate over sovereignty, transparency, and protection of national interests.

Morocco: Energy Minister Leila Benali’s Nador West Med gas infrastructure project was suspended on 30 January by the Ministry of Finance due to tender concerns and institutional authority issues. The project includes a floating LNG storage and regasification unit and connections to the GME pipeline. A legal amendment was adopted preventing ONHYM from acting simultaneously as gas supplier and transporter.

French intelligence and economic group Adit, through its strategic agency Next Step Influence, is in advanced talks to acquire Choiseul Associates for 5 to 6 million euros. The potential deal would strengthen access to established business and political networks in Morocco and enhance influence capacity.

The suspension of the Nador West Med project by Finance Minister Nadia Fettah also drew political and institutional objections from within the RNI party. Financial and technical concerns, along with disputes over which public institution should oversee the project, contributed to the decision.

Mozambique: TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné and President Daniel Chapo announced the official restart of the Mozambique LNG project in Afungi. Construction has reached 40 percent completion. First LNG is targeted for 2029. Contracts exceeding 4 billion dollars are expected for local companies.

President Daniel Chapo met BADEA President Abdullah Almusaibeeh in Addis Ababa to discuss new financing cooperation focused on climate resilience and strengthening basic social services. BADEA signaled readiness to mobilize resources for reconstruction and development in response to natural disasters.

Yellow Tulip established its subsidiary Cleanwatts Mozambique to develop renewable powered data centers. Projects will be built around Cleanwatts Digital’s AI based energy management platform and aim to create sustainable and off grid data infrastructure in the Southern African region.

Mali: The government extended Barrick Mining’s Loulo gold mine license by ten years. Following resolution of disputes linked to the 2023 mining code, a feasibility study confirmed economic reserves supporting annual production of approximately 420,920 ounces, with six years of open pit and sixteen years of underground mining.

Somalia: The drilling vessel Cagri Bey departed from Türkiye to begin offshore exploration in three Somali blocks numbered 142, 152, and 153 under economic and defense cooperation agreements. The first well named Curad 1 is scheduled for April 2026. The operation represents Türkiye’s first deepwater drilling activity outside its own maritime jurisdiction.

Somalia’s Minister of Interior Abdullahi Sheikh Ismail Fartaag conducted a two day official visit to Dar es Salaam. The visit is expected to strengthen coordination with Tanzania on security, migration, and institutional cooperation.

African Union Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf met President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Addis Ababa and reiterated support for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The meeting followed Somalia’s election to the African Union Peace and Security Council for the 2026 to 2028 term.

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Chinese company Zijin Mining began lithium operations at the disputed Manono site with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons of spodumene and approximately 95,170 tons of lithium sulfate. Production started after the transfer of the license from AVZ to Zijin. The development positions the DRC as a strategic supplier of lithium alongside its established role in cobalt.

State mining company Gécamines reached an agreement with Glencore during Mining Indaba granting it marketing rights for 110,000 tons of copper production from Kamoto Copper Company in 2025 for a period of three years. The deal strengthens Gécamines’ role in global mineral trade and supports closer strategic alignment with the United States in critical minerals.

Liberia: The Liberia Chamber of Mines and the Ministry of Mines and Energy promoted the country as a priority destination for sustainable mining investment at Mining Indaba 2026 in Cape Town. Engagements with the Africa Finance Corporation placed Liberia on the investment radar, highlighting sector reforms and investor friendly regulations.

Angola: Azule Energy, a joint venture between Eni and BP, and its partners announced an offshore oil discovery at the Algaita 01 well in Block 15 06 with an estimated potential of around 500 million barrels. The well was drilled between 10 and 26 January 2026 in water depths of 667 meters. The discovery is considered suitable for tie back to existing production infrastructure. Eni confirmed that the find is located 18 kilometers from the Olombendo FPSO.

Gabon: The government held a high level follow up meeting with ERAMET COMILOG to accelerate domestic manganese processing. Discussions focused on industrialization, job creation, strengthening energy capacity, and clarifying the operational timeline.

Kenya: Gulf Energy’s field development plan for the Turkana oil field is under regulatory review. Commercial production is targeted for December 2026 in Blocks T6 and T7. The first phase from 2026 to 2032 projects output of around 20,000 barrels per day.

Ghana: Ghana’s Embassy in Washington launched a targeted investment campaign in California to attract US investment in technology, agriculture, energy, and manufacturing. The initiative leverages diaspora engagement and economic diplomacy to strengthen bilateral trade and capital flows.

Niger: President Abdourahamane Tiani’s official visit to Algeria signals the end of more than ten months of diplomatic tension between the two countries. The visit followed the reinstatement of ambassadors. Both leaders emphasized revitalizing bilateral relations.

Sudan: Army Chief Abdel Fattah al Burhan conveyed his position to Washington regarding a peace proposal presented by US adviser Massad Boulos and did not offer concessions. The US administration aims to advance the plan with Quad partners. Sudan’s army and paramilitary forces continue to maintain their positions on the ground.

Afrıca General Overvıew: The African Union, AFCONE, and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency signed a memorandum of cooperation to advance the peaceful use of nuclear technology. The agreement focuses on capacity building in countries such as Nigeria, strengthening regulatory infrastructure, and mobilizing technical and financial resources to support the energy transition.

The African Union adopted a stabilization strategy for eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Sahel. The 2026 chairmanship was transferred to Burundi’s President Évariste Ndayishimiye. New coordination mechanisms for the use of the African Standby Force were approved. The theme for 2026 was designated as water and sanitation.

African Development Bank President Sidi Ould Tah presented the New Africa Financial Architecture plan aimed at reducing dependence on external capital. The initiative seeks to strengthen local capital markets, expand risk sharing mechanisms, and enhance resource mobilization to reinforce financial sovereignty.

Kenyan President William Ruto stated that full implementation of the AfCFTA could increase intra African trade by 3 trillion dollars and add 1.4 trillion dollars to Africa’s GDP between 2021 and 2045. He called for a shift from negotiation to implementation to deliver tangible benefits to a population of 1.4 billion.

In the Horn of Africa, rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates centered on the Red Sea is assessed to be generating a broader influence contest extending from Yemen to Somalia, Sudan, and the Sahel. This dynamic is placing indirect pressure on regional states.

Afreximbank’s decision to end its credit rating relationship with Fitch has revived debates over sovereignty and the role of African development institutions within the global financial architecture. The move has intensified criticism of dependence on external rating agencies.

The United States hosted its first Critical Minerals Ministerial Summit to strengthen access to strategic minerals in Africa and counterbalance China’s influence. Seven African countries participated, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, and Guinea. Washington called for the formation of a trade bloc among partners.

Forward Outlook

In the short term, investment momentum in energy and critical minerals is expected to remain firm. Supply increases from Libya, Algeria, and Mozambique, along with progress in gas and oil projects in Nigeria and Angola, will directly shape export projections toward Europe and Asia. Capacity expansion and processing investments in the DRC, Namibia, and South Africa will sharpen strategic competition between the United States and China and accelerate supply chain realignment.

At the same time, security dynamics in Sudan, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa, along with rising political and institutional tensions in certain countries, are likely to increase investor selectivity. Debates over financial architecture and efforts to strengthen local capital markets may reshape external financing costs over the medium term. The broader trajectory suggests sustained resource driven growth opportunities, yet geopolitical and security risks will remain central variables in the investment environment.

FORWARD LOOK | Next 7 Days

• Acceleration of energy supply diplomacy linked to Libya and Algeria

• Potential political and legal tensions in Nigeria around gas and refinery developments

• New foreign investment announcements in critical mineral projects in the DRC and Namibia

• Tactical security shifts across Sudan and the Sahel corridor

• Increased Africa focused engagement in EU and US energy and critical minerals diplomacy