Middle East Bulletin No: 2

Executive Summary

The Middle East remained defined by the interconnected crises surrounding Iran, Yemen and regional energy security during the week of 19–26 September. Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting nuclear negotiations in exchange for the lifting of the US maritime blockade, but Washington rejected the offer and signalled that military pressure could increase after the US midterm elections. Gulf states remained divided between those advocating continued pressure on Tehran and those supporting renewed diplomacy, highlighting growing differences in regional approaches to the conflict. Yemen emerged as the region’s most active battlefield, with fighting intensifying along key fronts and Houthi missile and drone attacks extending deeper into Saudi Arabia. The escalation prompted additional Western support for Riyadh, including French deployments to protect critical energy infrastructure at Yanbu and British assistance to Saudi air operations. At the same time, continued Israeli military operations in Gaza and southern Lebanon, despite existing ceasefires, underscored the persistence of multiple overlapping security crises across the region. Energy markets remained highly sensitive to developments around Hormuz and attacks on Saudi infrastructure. Brent crude briefly exceeded $107 per barrel before ending the week higher, while tanker rates and war-risk premiums remained elevated. Saudi Arabia and Qatar increased exports through Hormuz to stabilise supplies, yet ongoing security threats continued to create uncertainty for global energy markets. Meanwhile, worsening humanitarian conditions in Yemen and Gaza highlighted the growing civilian cost of the region’s conflicts, with large-scale displacement, fuel shortages and mounting international appeals for assistance.