Middle East Bulletin No: 3

Executive Summary

Diplomacy and military pressure moved in opposite directions this week. Talks between US and Iranian delegations through Qatar broke down on 28 September, and Rubio then expelled Iran’s delegation from New York. Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day plan for reopening Hormuz and said Tehran had “overplayed their hand”. Washington added Treasury sanctions on Iran’s weapons procurement network. It also ordered more forces and Patriot batteries to protect Saudi oil and Qatari gas sites. Our reading is that Washington wants concessions before any interim deal and has not abandoned the talks. Still, the deployments make resumed strikes a real option. The Yemen front escalated the most. Government and coalition aircraft carried out hundreds of strikes around Taiz, where about 19 roads were closed and declared military zones. The Houthis fired drones and ballistic missiles at Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran. WFP said hunger in government-held areas reached a record for the year in just a few weeks. In Gaza, Israel killed Hamas’s northern commander despite the ceasefire. In Lebanon the framework stayed stalled, with Rubio saying army deployment “is not enough” without Hezbollah’s disarmament. Energy flows recovered while transit risk stayed high. Unidentified projectiles hit tankers in or near Hormuz several times, including one 4 nautical miles off Oman. Iraqi crude sold at about $28 below Dubai, which shows how hard it is to market Gulf-loaded barrels. Brent closed the week at $102.25. The flydubai co-pilot attack on a Tel Aviv flight led to suspended flights and puts Gulf-Israel air links under scrutiny.