Iran War Daily Brief - 13 March 2026

Executive Summary

The Iran war intensified on 13 March as military escalation across Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and the Gulf coincided with rising operational risks for U.S. forces and continued disruption to global energy markets. A major incident occurred when a U.S. Air Force KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq, killing all six crew members during combat support operations. At the same time, Israeli strikes continued against Iranian and Hezbollah-linked targets while Iranian retaliation through missiles, drones and maritime attacks persisted across the region. The conflict has now expanded beyond the immediate Iran–Israel theater into a broader regional battlespace involving multiple states and security domains. Energy security remains the central strategic consequence of the war. Iranian attacks on shipping and the mining of sea lanes in the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil supply normally transits — have pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel and significantly reduced tanker traffic. The conflict is also creating escalation risks beyond the core battlefield, illustrated by repeated Iranian missile trajectories entering Turkish airspace and being intercepted by NATO defense systems. With maritime disruption continuing and governments considering strategic petroleum reserve releases, the conflict is increasingly evolving into a broader global energy and economic security crisis.