Africa Conflict-Diplomacy Daily Brief - 2 April, 2026

Executive Summary

Security dynamics across the Sahel and Central Africa remain volatile, with high-casualty attacks such as ISCAP’s mass killing of civilians in Ituri underscoring persistent insurgent operational capacity and civilian vulnerability. In eastern DRC, overlapping conflict lines between AFC/M23, Wazalendo, and government forces continue to fragment security control, while mutual accusations involving the FDLR highlight deepening mistrust and a risk of further escalation. In the Sahel, JNIM maintains offensive momentum in Burkina Faso through coordinated attacks on military and auxiliary positions, indicating sustained pressure on state forces. Concurrently, Mali’s ongoing military and logistical build-up suggests preparation for continued or expanded operations. Burkina Faso’s leadership messaging reinforces a strategy of self-reliance and total mobilization, rejecting external assistance while signaling intensified military campaigns. In Nigeria, security forces demonstrate tactical effectiveness through interdictions and arrests, though persistent ISWAP/Boko Haram activity indicates an enduring threat environment. Somalia’s approval of a civilian protection policy and leadership reshuffle in Southwest State point to efforts to strengthen governance and operational legitimacy, but underlying security and political fragilities remain.