Africa Conflict-Diplomacy Daily Brief - 19 March, 2026

Executive Summary

Security dynamics across the Sahel and Central Africa remain volatile, marked by sustained militant operational capacity and localized tactical gains. JNIM and IS Sahel affiliates continue to conduct coordinated attacks against military and auxiliary forces in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, indicating persistent insurgent mobility and targeting of lightly defended positions. In Nigeria, security forces are maintaining operational pressure on ISWAP through intelligence exploitation, arrests, and rescue operations, suggesting incremental gains in counterinsurgency effectiveness despite ongoing threat presence. In Somalia, government forces are expanding territorial control in Lower Shabelle, reflecting continued momentum in offensive operations against Al-Shabaab-linked elements. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, parallel diplomatic and military tracks are evident: while Kinshasa and Kigali have agreed on de-escalatory steps under the Washington framework, AFC/M23 is simultaneously reinforcing frontline positions, underscoring a fragile and reversible stabilization process.