Africa Conflict-Diplomacy Daily Brief - 18 March, 2026

Executive Summary

Executive Assessment Escalation remains concentrated across the Sahel and Horn of Africa, with jihadist groups sustaining operational tempo while state actors respond through targeted military actions and restrictive security measures. JNIM continues asymmetric attacks in Mali, targeting military mobility and infrastructure with IEDs and raids, indicating persistent freedom of movement and localized tactical superiority in central and northern corridors. In Nigeria, ISWAP retains infiltration capability despite significant losses, while mass-casualty attacks on civilians underscore enduring security gaps in northwestern states. In Somalia, the situation is marked by dual pressure: intensified U.S.-supported counterterrorism strikes against al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia, alongside deepening political fragmentation as Southwest State suspends ties with the federal government, increasing risks of internal destabilization. In eastern DRC, continued clashes between AFC/M23 and Wazalendo point to sustained frontline volatility without de-escalation indicators. Niger’s temporary mobility restrictions in Tillabéri reflect heightened threat perceptions and a reliance on short-term containment measures rather than structural security improvements.