Africa Conflict-Diplomacy Daily Brief - 17 March, 2026

Executive Summary

Security dynamics across the Sahel and the Great Lakes region show simultaneous pressure on state control and rising operational tempo by non-state armed groups. In Mali and Burkina Faso, JNIM’s continued attacks and claims of territorial gains—combined with targeting of Africa Corps elements—indicate sustained insurgent capability and growing confrontation with foreign-backed forces. The planned permanent deployment of Africa Corps assets suggests a deepening and longer-term external security footprint. In Somalia, ongoing coordinated operations reflect sustained counterinsurgency pressure on Al-Shabaab, but the group remains resilient across multiple المناطق. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, AFC/M23’s territorial advances and reinforcements, alongside continued clashes, point to escalating conflict dynamics with regional spillover risk. In Nigeria, high-casualty suicide attacks in Maiduguri highlight persistent urban terror threats and gaps in deterrence. Overall, the operational environment indicates entrenched insurgencies, increasing external actor involvement, and a widening instability corridor from the Sahel to Central Africa.