Africa Conflict-Diplomacy Daily Brief - 16 March, 2026

Executive Summary

Recent developments across the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin indicate continued operational activity by jihadist groups despite ongoing military pressure from regional forces. JNIM maintains the capacity to conduct coordinated attacks and expand tactical influence in parts of Mali and Burkina Faso, while ISWAP continues probing Nigerian military positions with simultaneous assaults on multiple bases in Borno State. Although national armies report successful counter-operations, including airstrikes and repelled attacks, the persistence of militant operations highlights the enduring resilience of insurgent networks. In Mali, the combination of counter-terrorism strikes and the escape of high-profile hostages suggests both continued security operations and vulnerabilities in state control over remote areas. Meanwhile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo remains unstable as clashes between AFC/M23, Wazalendo militias, and government forces continue across North Kivu and Walikale, indicating fluid front lines and fragmented local alliances. Diplomatically and economically, international engagement remains active. U.S.–Niger discussions on security cooperation and IMF financial support to Niger demonstrate ongoing external involvement aimed at stabilizing governance and economic conditions in the Sahel. In Somalia, continued joint operations by national forces and local militias against Al-Shabaab reflect sustained counter-insurgency efforts, though the group remains operational in southern regions. Overall, the regional security landscape remains volatile, characterized by persistent insurgent activity alongside continued international and national counter-terrorism initiatives.