Africa Conflict-Diplomacy Daily Brief - 14 March, 2026

Executive Summary

Security dynamics across several African theaters remain volatile, with jihadist groups sustaining operational tempo and targeting both state forces and strategic economic assets. The ISCAP attack in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo highlights the group’s capability to strike military positions protecting foreign-operated mining infrastructure and subsequently target civilian populations, underscoring persistent vulnerabilities around critical mineral sites and Chinese investments in the region. In the Sahel, JNIM and ISSP continue low-intensity but geographically dispersed attacks using ambushes and improvised explosive devices against security forces and allied militias in Mali and Niger, indicating ongoing insurgent mobility and the continued exposure of rural security networks. Somalia shows mixed trends: security forces report significant militant losses in coordinated counterterrorism operations, yet attacks such as the Puntland landmine incident demonstrate that Al-Shabaab and affiliated networks retain the ability to inflict casualties. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s military demonstrated defensive resilience by repelling large-scale militant assaults on forward positions in Borno State, suggesting improved tactical readiness but also confirming that insurgent groups remain capable of massing forces for coordinated attacks. Overall, the reporting reflects a persistent pattern across multiple theaters: insurgent groups maintain the capacity to conduct asymmetric operations, target security forces, and disrupt strategic infrastructure, while governments continue to rely on counterterrorism operations and defensive measures to contain—but not yet decisively reduce—the threat.