Africa Conflict-Diplomacy Daily Brief - 13 March, 2026

Executive Summary

Recent developments across the Sahel and the Horn of Africa indicate a continued convergence of diplomatic engagement and persistent insurgent activity. The United States is seeking to maintain diplomatic channels with Burkina Faso and Niger despite the evolving political landscape, signaling an effort to preserve strategic dialogue on security and economic cooperation in the central Sahel. Meanwhile, militant groups remain operationally active. JNIM continues localized attacks against military and auxiliary forces in Burkina Faso, while ISWAP-linked activity in northeastern Nigeria highlights ongoing logistical networks and attempts to target military positions. Nigerian authorities emphasize operational progress against insurgent and bandit groups, though the threat environment remains volatile. In Somalia, government forces are maintaining pressure through clearance operations in Middle Shabelle, reflecting ongoing counter-insurgency efforts against Al-Shabaab. At the same time, Mogadishu is signaling geopolitical sensitivities over reported Israeli military basing plans in Somaliland. In eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, renewed clashes between AFC/M23 and Wazalendo militias in North Kivu underscore the persistence of localized armed confrontations despite periods of relative frontline stagnation. Overall, the regional picture reflects sustained insurgent pressure, ongoing counter-terrorism operations, and parallel diplomatic maneuvering by external actors.