Africa Conflict-Diplomacy Daily Brief - 12 March, 2026

Executive Summary

ecent developments across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin indicate sustained insurgent pressure despite ongoing military operations by regional governments. In Mali and Burkina Faso, JNIM continues to demonstrate operational reach through attacks on military positions and IED strikes, highlighting persistent security vulnerabilities in central and eastern sectors. At the same time, Malian authorities are attempting to reinforce political stability by institutionalizing a new national reconciliation mechanism, signaling parallel political and military approaches to the conflict. In Niger, security forces are intensifying nationwide operations targeting armed groups, mercenary networks, and illicit trafficking structures, reflecting the regime’s focus on internal stabilization and counter-criminal enforcement. Meanwhile in Nigeria, the military has successfully repelled multiple ISWAP and Boko Haram attacks and retaken a key military base, but the frequency of coordinated assaults indicates that jihadist groups retain operational capability across Borno and Yobe states. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the security situation in the east remains fragile. The drone strike in Goma and limited implementation of the Rwanda–DRC “Washington Agreement” underscore continued tensions and slow progress in conflict de-escalation, despite isolated cases of M23 fighters surrendering. Regionally, diplomatic engagement continues, as reflected by Somalia’s leadership visit to Djibouti, signaling ongoing efforts to maintain political coordination among Horn of Africa partners amid persistent security challenges.