Africa Conflict-Diplomacy Daily Brief - 10 March , 2026

Executive Summary

Security dynamics across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin remain volatile as jihadist groups continue to conduct coordinated attacks against military positions and local militias. JNIM activity in Mali and Burkina Faso indicates sustained operational capacity, including large-scale assaults on military installations and territorial pressure on local defense units. In Nigeria, ISWAP maintains the ability to conduct targeted attacks against military personnel and bases in Borno State despite repeated counter-operations by Nigerian forces. Concurrently, Nigerian security operations continue to target armed groups in the northwest. The United States appears to be seeking renewed intelligence access over Mali’s airspace, suggesting growing concern in Washington over deteriorating counter-terrorism visibility in the central Sahel. In Somalia, U.S. and regional engagement remains focused on supporting operations against Al-Shabaab, particularly in Jubbaland. Meanwhile, armed clashes between FARDC and AFC/M23 around Goma underline the continued instability in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, while Niger’s investigation following the attack on Tahoua Air Base signals persistent security threats to military infrastructure in the Sahel.