AFRICA BULLETIN — ISSUE 05

Executive Summary

Security fragmentation continues to deepen across Africa as conflicts in Sudan, the Great Lakes and the Sahel become increasingly shaped by armed groups, local militias and external actors. In Sudan, the war continues to expand across new fronts while the involvement of regional and international actors adds further complexity to the conflict. In the DRC, fighting involving FARDC, Wazalendo and AFC/M23 forces continues alongside the emergence of parallel administrative structures. Across the Sahel, JNIM activity and attacks involving Russian Africa Corps personnel underline the changing security environment, while Somalia and the Lake Chad Basin remain affected by cross-border jihadist networks. At the diplomatic level, Algeria’s rupture with the UAE, its renewed engagement with Mali and Türkiye’s mediation efforts in Libya point to shifting regional alignments and competing external partnerships. Despite persistent instability, international investment in Africa’s energy and mining sectors continues to accelerate. Angola, Mozambique, Libya and Sudan remain important destinations for energy investment, while the DRC, Zambia, Guinea, Namibia and Malawi are increasingly integrated into global critical-mineral supply chains. China is strengthening its position through lithium, copper and uranium, while the US and its partners are developing alternative access to tungsten, rare earths and other strategic resources. Gulf states are also expanding their presence through country-specific investments in energy, mining and infrastructure. However, the rapid entry of external capital continues to contrast with weak institutional capacity, informal resource flows and limited domestic value addition. The gap between Africa’s substantial resource wealth and the ability of states to convert these resources into stronger institutions, security and industrial development remains one of the central themes of the current period.