AES–U.S. RAPPROCHEMENT AND THE NEW GEOPOLITICS OF CRITICAL MINERALS

Executive Summary

The relationship between the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso—and the United States is entering a cautious new phase shaped primarily by critical minerals and security interests rather than ideological alignment. After the 2023 coups and the subsequent deterioration of relations, Washington began reopening channels with the three countries in 2026, including diplomatic engagement and efforts to restore intelligence cooperation. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation’s approval of up to $414.2 million in financing for Global Atomic’s Dasa uranium project in Niger represents the clearest economic signal of this shift. At the same time, Mali has sought to attract U.S. investment into its gold, manganese and particularly lithium sectors. These developments indicate that Washington is increasingly prepared to engage with the AES governments despite continued political disagreements, while the Sahel states are seeking to diversify their external economic partnerships. The emerging rapprochement, however, does not represent a strategic break with Russia or China, nor does it indicate an imminent return of U.S. military forces to the region. Mali and Niger are pursuing a multi-partner strategy aimed at preventing dependence on any single external actor, while Washington is seeking access to strategically important mineral resources and renewed security cooperation against armed groups. China remains deeply embedded in Mali’s lithium sector, while Niger’s uranium sector continues to face legal and political complications following the deterioration of relations with France’s Orano. The limited scale of existing trade, Washington’s reduced development-financing capacity and the continuing insecurity across the Sahel further constrain the relationship. Overall, the current opening is best understood as a transactional, pragmatic and potentially reversible process, in which the AES states simultaneously negotiate with Russia, China and the United States to strengthen their strategic autonomy, while Washington seeks to secure critical mineral supplies and rebuild limited security cooperation