A New Phase of Security, Trade and Energy Competition in the Arctic

Executive Summary

Competition in the Arctic is entering a more permanent and multidimensional phase as military security, trade, energy, and industrial policy become increasingly interconnected. Western allies are strengthening surveillance, unmanned systems, command and control, icebreaker production, and northern defence cooperation, while Russia continues to reinforce its military position around the Kola Peninsula and maintain the strategic role of its submarine forces. At the same time, China is expanding its presence through scheduled Northern Sea Route services, LNG infrastructure, and logistics networks, while South Korea is investing in ports, shipbuilding, and Arctic transport policy. The Northern Sea Route is unlikely to replace the Suez Canal in the near term, but it could become an important alternative corridor for seasonal and high-value cargo. Arctic competition will increasingly depend on which actors can combine military capability with industrial capacity, resilient logistics, energy infrastructure, and secure access.