U.S.–Iran Tensions and the Prospect of a U.S. Military Operation Against Iran

Tensions between the United States and Iran entered a new phase as of January 2026, shaped by the resurgence of domestic protests in Iran toward the end of 2025, Tehran’s continued progress in its ballistic missile program, and persistent disputes over the transparency of its nuclear activities. Assessing that Iran’s approach toward a nuclear threshold capability and its military activities conducted through regional proxy forces have undermined the deterrence balance, Washington initiated a broad process of military deployments and force positioning focused on the Middle East.

During this period of escalation, diplomatic channels were not severed. On the contrary, contacts between the United States and Iran continued through Oman and Geneva. Discussions in Oman were largely conducted within the framework of backchannel diplomacy and confidence building measures, while the Geneva talks directly addressed nuclear activities, ballistic missile capabilities, and regional military engagements. Public statements by both sides indicated that the discussions were constructive but inconclusive, with no tangible agreement reached, particularly on uranium enrichment activities and missile testing. This dynamic demonstrates that a balancing strategy has been adopted in which diplomacy and military preparations are pursued in parallel.

U.S. Military Deployments Toward the Middle East

Since January 2026, the United States has conducted at least 212 military flights oriented toward the Middle East via various bases in the region and across Europe. A significant portion of these flights has been linked to the transfer of air and missile defense systems intended to protect U.S. bases in the region against potential Iranian ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle retaliation. Verified flights have concentrated primarily on the following five bases:

• Muwaffaq Salti Air Base: 100+ flights

• Prince Sultan Air Base: 23 flights

• Ali Al Salem Air Base: 20 flights

• Al Udeid Air Base: 13 flights

• Isa Air Base: 4 flights

These figures reflect only flights confirmed through open sources, and the actual number is assessed to be higher. In addition, at least 10 military flights have been conducted to the strategically significant Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean.

On the naval dimension, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has been deployed to the Middle East, while the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group has been reassigned from its mission in the Caribbean and is continuing its transit toward the region via the Mediterranean. Once both carrier groups arrive, it is projected that within the CENTCOM area of responsibility and its immediate vicinity there will be two aircraft carriers, approximately 15 destroyers, one SSGN, and at least four nuclear submarines in total, including three SSNs.

Following the Geneva talks held on 17 February, the tempo of U.S. military deployments increased markedly. Prior to the talks, 18 F-35A aircraft based in the United Kingdom were transferred to the Middle East. In the 48 hours following the meetings, 48 F-16s, 10 F-15Es, 6 F-22As, 6 E-3G AWACS, 4 E-11A BACN aircraft, and at least 45 KC-135R/T and KC-46A tanker aircraft were deployed to bases across the Middle East and Europe. The scale and pace of these movements indicate not only deterrence signaling but also a clear elevation in operational readiness.

Current U.S. Military Posture in the Region

The current U.S. buildup in the region points to a significant increase in aerial refueling capacity, which is critical for sustaining air operations. The distribution of tanker aircraft is assessed as follows:

Excluding carrier-based air wings, the region currently hosts 30 F-35As, 6 F-22As, 6 E/A-18Gs, 36 F-15Es, 48 F-16C/Ds, and 12 A-10Cs. An additional deployment of six F-22As from the U.S. mainland to the region is also planned. THAAD and Patriot batteries deployed at U.S. bases are intended to establish a layered air and missile defense architecture against Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities.

On the allied side, the United Kingdom has deployed six F-35Bs and ten Eurofighter Typhoons at Akrotiri Air Base in Cyprus. Aircraft stationed across the region are configured for air superiority, deep strike, SEAD and DEAD missions, electronic warfare, close air support, and intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance operations.

Compared with the forces deployed during the 12-Day War and Operation Midnight Hammer, which included 12 F-22s, 12 F-35s, 12 F-15Es, four B-52Hs, and six B-2 bombers, the current buildup presents a broader picture both in terms of scale and sustainability. In particular, the density of tanker and command and control aircraft strengthens the assessment that preparations point toward a prolonged operation rather than a short duration strike.

Potential Operational Scenarios Based on Deployments

Northern Axis

The northern axis emerges as a potential operational route extending into Iran from the north via the Black Sea and the Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan corridor. The deployment of at least nine KC-135R/T tanker aircraft to Bulgaria as part of the military buildup, together with recent visits by U.S. Vice President JD Vance to Armenia and Azerbaijan, suggests that airspace access may have been discussed in the context of a possible operation against Iran. Given that Iran’s military defensive posture is largely focused on its western and southern approaches, this route could represent a relatively less prepared front for Tehran. Bomber aircraft operating from the U.S. mainland or Europe and approaching Iran’s northern regions via the Caspian Sea could pose a significant challenge to Iran’s defensive depth.

Central Axis

The central axis corresponds to the conventional operational corridor used by Israel during the 12-Day War and by the United States during Operation Midnight Hammer. Iran is known to expect an attack along this route and has long reinforced its defenses accordingly. Nevertheless, it is assessed that the defensive infrastructure along this axis has been extensively mapped through long standing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance efforts by the United States and its allies. Bombers and fighter aircraft operating from the U.S. mainland and European bases could advance along this route supported by intensive electronic warfare and SEAD and DEAD operations. The use of Lajes Airport and Souda Air Base to refuel B-2 bombers during Operation Midnight Hammer further indicates that the current deployment posture strongly points toward the reuse of this axis.

Southern Axis

The southern axis is assessed as an operational line relying on carrier air wings deployed in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, as well as cruise missiles launched from destroyers and submarines. This axis is more likely to be employed not for a large scale penetration of Iranian airspace but for securing commercial maritime traffic, ensuring the continuity of global energy flows, and striking targets along Iran’s coastline. Should the United States deploy bomber or fighter aircraft to Diego Garcia, this route would also offer a viable option for long range strike operations.

Conclusion

In light of current assessments, the U.S. military buildup in the Middle East stands out as the largest deployment of combat aircraft and support assets to the region since the Second Gulf War. This buildup demonstrates that a significant portion of the United States’ most advanced technological systems has been forward deployed. In particular, the deployment of at least seven E-11A BACN and six E-3G AWACS aircraft suggests preparation not for a brief show of force but for a sustained and enduring campaign against Iran. Despite the continuation of diplomatic contacts, the elevation of military readiness to this extent indicates that Washington is treating the military option in the Iran file as a serious and credible course of action.

Relevant sources:

·       Iran expected to submit written proposal resolving standoff with US, Reuters, date accessed February 17, 2026,

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-expected-submit-written-proposal-resolving-standoff-with-us-senior-us-2026-02-18/

·       US deploys 50 fighter jets including F-22s, F-35s, F-16s to Middle East, Business Today, date accessed February 17, 2026,

https://www.businesstoday.in/world/us/story/us-deploys-50-fighter-jets-including-f-22s-f-35s-f-16s-to-middle-east-516627-2026-02-18

·       Iran news and regional security developments, The Jerusalem Post, date accessed February 16, 2026,

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-886998

·       Global defense and military developments, DefenseMirror, date accessed February 16, 2026,

https://defensemirror.com/news/

·       Trump sends aircraft carrier amid Iran tensions, Associated Press, date accessed February 17, 2026,

https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-aircraft-carrier-military-8db3fab10476949acda8b973be416204

·       US deploys aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford amid Iran tensions, The Washington Post, date accessed February 16, 2026,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/02/13/trump-iran-aircraft-carrier-gerald-ford/

·       Steffan Watkins, open-source naval and military tracking analysis, X (formerly Twitter), date accessed February 17, 2026,

https://x.com/steffanwatkins

·       Defence Geek, defense and military aviation analysis, X (formerly Twitter), date accessed February 16, 2026,

https://x.com/DefenceGeek

·       Ian Ellis-Jones, defense and strategic affairs commentary, X (formerly Twitter), date accessed February 16, 2026,

https://x.com/ianellisjones

·       Armchair Admiral, naval operations and OSINT commentary, X (formerly Twitter), date accessed February 17, 2026,

https://x.com/ArmchairAdml