Africa Conflict-Diplomacy Weekly Analysis- 21 February, 2026

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

US Senior Advisor for Africa Massad Boulos stated that any party undermining peace efforts could face sanctions, and he held M23 and Rwanda responsible for the developments following the Washington Agreements. On the diplomatic front, although the ceasefire proposed by Angolan President João Lourenço and accepted by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has come into effect, a ceasefire verification mechanism has not yet been established on the ground.

The AFC/M23 is attempting to fully establish its authority in the regions under its control. AFC-M23 North Kivu Governor Bahati Musanga Erasto announced from Kitshanga that efforts have begun to establish a new mobile network independent of the Kinshasa administration. Following this development, the DRC government cut off all cellular connections across the eastern region. On the other hand, according to a Reuters report based on a government document, the DRC administration has included the Rubaya coltan mine—one of the world's richest tantalum deposits currently controlled by rebels—in a list of strategic assets presented within the framework of mining cooperation with the US. A senior Congolese official and a US diplomat confirmed that Rubaya was included in the shortlist presented at the DRC-US meeting held in Washington on February 5 to advance the strategic minerals partnership agreed upon in December.

US Senior Advisor Boulos announced that Uvira had been captured by M23. A statement by the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) reported that on February 18-19, Rwandan Army Special Forces and AFC/M23 fighters carried out simultaneous attacks on positions in Ihula in the Walikale territory and the Kazaraho, Bugabo, Cahi, and Virumbi hills in the Rutshuru territory of North Kivu, violating the ceasefire proposed by Angola. It was reported that FARDC and allied forces clashed with Twirwaneho in numerous villages around Minembwe on February 17 and 18; during operations on February 18, FARDC consolidated its positions in the region using attack drones and helicopters, and carried out air-supported strikes against Twirwaneho. FARDC troops also repelled an attack by M23 in the Ruzizi Plain. On another front of the conflicts, armed clashes took place between Wazalendo elements and M23 in the villages of Kasirusiru and Kalonge within Bushwira, in the Kabare territory of South Kivu.

SOMALIA

An active period is being experienced in Somalia regarding domestic politics and diplomatic contacts. The Somali Future Council, consisting of the leaders of Jubaland, Puntland, and the Liberation Forum, held a special meeting at the Halane camp in Mogadishu to discuss the federal government's rejection of the special committee established for elections and constitutional amendments, deciding to fully participate in the meeting at Villa Somalia. Prior to the National Consultative Conference, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud hosted a consultative meeting with opposition leaders, federal state leaders, and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, where the electoral process, drought relief efforts, and ongoing operations against Al-Shabaab were discussed. Additionally, President Mohamud called on young fighters in the ranks of Al-Shabaab to lay down their arms before the upcoming month of Ramadan, offering them an amnesty. In the context of regional diplomacy, the Somaliland administration condemned the statements made by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who noted that Israel's recognition of Somaliland would not contribute to regional stability and that Somalia's territorial integrity must be respected. Labeling these remarks as an unacceptable interference, Somaliland warned that relations with regional partners could be damaged. President Mohamud held a strategic telephone conversation with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, to discuss the strengthening of bilateral relations and thanked Qatar for its support of Somalia's sovereignty, infrastructure development, and state-building efforts. Within the framework of diplomatic field activities, a visit was organized to Sabiid and Caanoole in the Lower Shabelle region with the participation of Defense Minister Ahmed Fiqi, Interior Minister Ali Yusuf, Somali National Army (SNA) Commander, and Turkish officials; the resettlement of displaced families, the construction of new housing, and the delivery of aid in areas recaptured from Al-Shabaab were inspected.

Somalia and Saudi Arabia signed a strategic maritime transport cooperation agreement to strengthen bilateral relations and develop port infrastructure. Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur stated that this agreement is a reflection of Saudi Arabia's support for Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

SNA Commander Brigadier General Ibrahim Mohamed Mahmud met with AUSSOM Head Ambassador El Hadji Ibrahima Diene and Force Commander General Sam Kavuma in Mogadishu to discuss strengthening military cooperation, implementing the Security Transition Plan, and accelerating joint operations against Al-Shabaab. Simultaneously, Defense Minister Ahmed Fiqi held a meeting with the Ambassador of the People's Republic of China in Mogadishu; the strengthening of bilateral cooperation, supporting the SNA's counter-terrorism capacity, and the importance of Somalia's stability for the overall security of the Horn of Africa were emphasized.

Following a planned operation conducted by the SNA in the Deynuunay area, Abdullahi Ali Mohamed, who was reported to be an Al-Shabaab member involved in violent acts against civilians, surrendered to security forces. Puntland security forces captured and detained a Yemeni terrorist in the Tasjiic area of the Calmiskaad Mountains. Within the scope of international military operations, AFRICOM announced that it had carried out airstrikes targeting Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia elements in the vicinity of Kismayo, the Golis Mountains, and the Middle Shabelle (Shabeellaha Dhexe) regions on February 14-15, 2026. In another airstrike conducted by Somali National security units between Masajid Ali Gaduud and Daaru Salaam in Middle Shabelle, 15 Al-Shabaab militants were neutralized; in an operation carried out between Yasooman and Moqokori in the Hiiraan region, 4 militants were neutralized and a vehicle belonging to the organization was destroyed. The National Army and Jubaland regional forces seized a bomb-making factory belonging to Al-Shabaab as part of a joint operation in the Lower Juba region. Al-Shabaab announced that it had publicly executed five youths in Bu'aale in the Middle Juba region on charges of spying for the Somali government and international partners; and five people in Kunyobarrow in the Lower Shabelle region on charges of spying for the Somali government and the US.

MALI

Around ten militants were neutralized in operations carried out by the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) units in the Bambara-Maoudé and Inadjatafane areas of the Douentza region. In operations conducted in the Toulé and Akoub villages in Nampala, numerous terrorists were neutralized, and weapons and equipment belonging to the organization were seized. Simultaneously, the advance of a military convoy consisting of FAMa and Africa Corps personnel along the Aguelhok-Anefis axis was reported.

Following an attack by Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) militants on a gendarmerie post in the town of Kalana near the Guinean border, the SOMIKA mining site located in the same town was also targeted.

The FAMa-Africa Corps convoy advancing on the Aguelhok-Anefis axis was targeted by the Freedom and Alliance Front (FLA) with suicide drones, resulting in material damage and casualties. Due to a technical malfunction that caused the drone to detonate prematurely during this attack, Mohamed Ag Intalla, the son of one of the FLA leaders, Al-Ghabass Ag Intalla, and two people accompanying him lost their lives. The same convoy was also targeted with a mine by JNIM, and as a result of the attack, five pro-government Tuareg fighters in the region were killed. In another phase of the operations in the north of the country, five soldiers lost their lives and a military vehicle was destroyed in an improvised explosive device (IED) attack carried out by JNIM near Aguelhok on February 18.

Furthermore, JNIM claimed that; they attacked the gendarmerie post and the SOMIKA mining site in the town of Kalana near the Guinean border, setting the post on fire and seizing a military vehicle and ammunition; 5 soldiers lost their lives and 1 military vehicle was destroyed in the IED attack near Aguelhok on February 18; 5 motorcycles were seized in clashes between Markala and Siribala on February 16, 4 soldiers were killed, their vehicles were burned, and ammunition was seized in an ambush in the Segou region; they gained control of the military post in Djenne on February 18, killing 4 soldiers and confiscating vehicles and equipment; they ambushed Dozo militia between Sofara and Kouli, killing 4 militiamen at the Dozo headquarters in Bandiougou and 1 militiaman at the headquarters in Sikasso, while seizing ammunition and vehicles.

NIGERIA

According to developments confirmed by Nigerian and US officials, a US military aircraft has landed in Maiduguri, and the first American contingent of approximately 100 personnel is planned to be deployed to the region by the weekend.

Following increasing ISWAP drone attacks along the country's northern borders, Israel-based defense company Reguard Security has initiated talks with Nigerian security agencies in Abuja. The company, led by former Israeli Special Forces member Avraham Ohayon, reportedly offers solutions in drone detection and neutralization, cybersecurity, military training, and risk management.

On the level of military and security mobility, the Nigerian army is continuing its operations against terrorist elements across the country. Four terrorists were neutralized during a combat patrol in Borno State, and one soldier was injured during the operation. Within the scope of intelligence and operational activities, an individual suspected of being a logistics supplier for Boko Haram was arrested in the Visik area of the Hong local government area in Adamawa State. In an ambush set near the abandoned village of Gwadale on the Ngoshe-Kirawa road in the same state, a suspected Boko Haram militant was neutralized, and logistical supplies belonging to the organization were seized. Simultaneously, Operation Hadin Kai troops repelled coordinated terrorist attacks in Pulka and Mandaragirau; army sources announced that ISWAP/Boko Haram fighters suffered heavy casualties and that there were no military casualties in Pulka.

On the axis of conflict and terror dynamics, actions targeting military elements and civilians are proceeding intensely. In a statement contradicting army reports, ISWAP claimed that troops retreated during its attack on the military base in Pulka, that 11 military vehicles, a truck, and six motorcycles were burned, and a large quantity of weapons was seized. The organization also alleged that it attacked a military camp in Kauwa, Borno State, killing four soldiers in a 30-minute clash, injuring numerous soldiers, destroying 11 vehicles including armored units, and capturing one vehicle along with weapons and ammunition. In other incidents of violence on the ground; an armored personnel carrier escorting civilian drivers on the Keta-Dangibga road in Zamfara State was destroyed by an improvised explosive device. In acts with high civilian casualties, at least 34 people lost their lives in coordinated attacks by suspected Lakurawa terrorists on communities in the Arewa area of Kebbi State; and at least 30 civilians lost their lives in an attack by armed elements on three villages in the Borgu area of Niger State.

BURKINA FASO

Within the scope of military and security developments in Burkina Faso, the national army executed a comprehensive counter-offensive against the actions of Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) elements in Titao. According to operational footage broadcast by the national broadcaster RTB, numerous militants were neutralized in Titao as a result of airstrikes utilizing TB2 and Akinci armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UCAVs) in coordination with ground operations.

JNIM claimed that; 50 soldiers were killed in a barracks in Tandjari on February 15, dozens of soldiers in a barracks raid in Titao, 10 soldiers in a police station in Bilanga, a total of 9 soldiers in Namssiguia and Tangaye, and 3 soldiers in Soudougui, and that a large number of military vehicles, weapons, and equipment were seized from these areas; in line with area dominance activities, they took control of military posts in Barga, Boussouma, and Malou; in actions targeting local defense elements, VDP (Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland) positions in Koulpelogo were brought under control, 9 militiamen were killed and the area was seized during an attack on a VDP post in Riou, and 1 militiaman was killed and logistical supplies were confiscated in a raid on a VDP post in Pensa.

NIGER

Nigerien Head of State Tiani paid a visit to Algeria. Tiani stated that this visit aims to strengthen the strategic partnership with Algeria across various sectors, including security. During the contacts, Tiani stated that he could not understand how any Algerian or African would allow Algerian territory to be used to attack another African nation, especially by France, a power that has caused suffering to the Algerian people for more than a century. Within the framework of these discussions, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune declared that they are on the same side as Niger in the fight against terrorism and will cooperate using all means at their disposal.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed its program reviews for Niger and approved financing of approximately $91 million for the country.

In a statement made by the Nigerien Army, it was reported that 43 terrorists were neutralized as a result of targeted operations supported by coordinated airstrikes executed during the week of February 9-15, 2026; and 28 people suspected of being collaborators with armed terrorist organizations were arrested.

ISSP claimed to have killed seven soldiers in an ambush they set against military troops in Filingue, located in the Tillaberi region.